UMass vs Northwestern NCAA Football Picks Against the Spread 11/16/2019

Saturday, November 16, 2019

Ryan Field

Aidan Smith and the Northwestern Wildcats host the UMass Minutemen at Ryan Field on Saturday, November 16, 2019. Northwestern opens this contest as 39.5-point favorites. The Minutemen are 1-9-0 ATS and 8-2-0 when betting on the total. The Wildcats are 3-6-0 when wagering on the over/under and 2-7-0 against the spread.

The last time they took the field, the UMass Minutemen played the Army Black Knights and took the defeat by a score of 63-7. Taking the lead at quarterback for the Minutemen was Andrew Brito who went 6/16 with 75 yards through the air and completed 1 TD. He threw 1 pick during the game. Bilal Ally paced the team on the ground during the game. He had a long run of 22 yards but wasn't able to convert a rushing touchdown. He ran for a total of 26 yards via 10 carries which meant he averaged 2.6 yards per carry. Kyle Horn led the team in receiving yardage with a total of 56 yards on 2 receptions. He earned an average of 28.0 yards per catch during the game. The Minutemen ended up running the ball 26 times and earned 26 yards which earned them an average of 1.0 yards per run. For the game, they ran 48 plays which added up to 125 yards. For the game, the Minutemen racked up a total of 7 first downs and they had a total of 5 penalties for 44 yards which is telling of how their week of practice went. In terms of defense, UMass allowed 3 catches on 6 tries for a total of 48 yards, and a completion percentage of 50.0%. Against the run, the Minutemen allowed 498 yards on 78 attempts which means they had an average of 6.4 yards per carry allowed. For this contest, they conceded a total of 546 yards and forced 1 takeaway.

The Minutemen head into this matchup 1-9 this season. They are one of lowest scoring teams in the nation with an average of 20.7 points per contest, putting them 113th in the nation. As a unit, they are averaging 126.6 rushing yards per game which is 5th among FBS Independent teams. For total yardage, they are currently ranked 6th among FBS Independent teams and 116th in the nation with 2,915 yards. The Minutemen have one of the most lackluster defenses in D-1, allowing 53.1 points per game ranking them 6th among Independent teams. When it comes to yards through the air, the Minutemen have conceded 2,761 yards. Opponents are completing 68.2% of the throws they are attempting against them and averaging 10.0 yards per attempt. When talking about yards on the ground, UMass is giving up 291.8 yards per contest which has them at 6th among Independent teams and 131st in Division 1. Opposing teams are running for an average of 6.4 yards per carry ranking them 5th among Independent teams and 129th in Division 1 overall. Overall, they have allowed 2,918 rushing yards through 10 games.

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In their last outing, the Northwestern Wildcats took on the Purdue Boilermakers and took the defeat by a score of 24-22. Kyric McGowan led the team on the ground in the game. His longest run of the day went for 79 yards and he tallied 1 touchdown for the game. He rushed for 146 yards via 17 carries which had him averaging 8.6 yards per run. Riley Lees led the team in receiving yardage by racking up 62 yards on 8 receptions. He had an average of 7.8 yards per reception in the game. Leading the way at QB for the Wildcats was Aidan Smith who went 19/31 with 184 yards through the air and added 2 TD's. He gave away 1 pick during the game. The Wildcats ran the ball 45 times and added 251 yards which had them averaging 5.6 yards per carry. For the game, the Wildcats earned 24 1st downs and they totaled 9 penalties for 86 yards telling us that this team was extremely undisciplined. Overall, they ran 76 plays for 435 yards. On the defensive side of the ball, Northwestern gave up 34 completions on 51 throws for a total of 271 yards, and a completion percentage of 66.7%. For the game, they conceded 345 yards and forced 2 turnovers. On the ground, the Wildcats gave up 74 yards on 21 tries which gave them an average of 3.5 yards per attempt allowed.

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The Wildcats come into this game with a record of 1-8. In discussing the offensive production, the Wildcats leave a lot to be desired in terms of scoring in the nation. Northwestern is having a year to forget in the ground game by averaging 146.9 yards on the ground per game, putting them 89th in the nation. As a unit, they have compiled a total of 1,322 rushing yards through 9 games, so they are going to want to make some changes to the ground game if they want to make teams respect them. The Wildcats average 277.8 yards per contest overall putting them 128th in Division 1 and 14th in the Big Ten Conference. The Wildcats are allowing 25.4 points per contest which puts them at 9th in the conference and 52nd in the country. Their passing defense is one of the middle of the road units in college football. They are conceding 200.1 passing yards per contest. For yards through the air allowed per game, the Wildcats are ranked 7th in the Big Ten. In terms of points given up, they have given up 229 points in total. When it comes to rushing yards, they are giving up 148.9 yards per game which puts them at 56th in college football and 9th in the Big Ten Conference. This season, they have allowed 1,340 rushing yards and 11.7 rushing TDs.

Who will win tonight's Minutemen/Wildcats college football game against the spread?

Guy's Pick: Take the Wildcats -39.5

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