South Alabama vs Troy NCAA Football Picks & Predictions

Wednesday, October 16, 2019

Veterans Memorial Stadium

Cephus Johnson and the South Alabama Jaguars travel to Veterans Memorial Stadium on Wednesday where they'll take on the Troy Trojans. Troy opens this contest as 14.5-point favorites. The Jaguars are 3-3-0 ATS and 1-5-0 when betting on the total. The Trojans are 3-2-0 when wagering on the over/under and 1-4-0 against the spread.

In their last contest, the South Alabama Jaguars went up against the Georgia Southern Eagles and were defeated 20-17. Taking the lead at quarterback for the Jaguars was Cephus Johnson who went 8/15 with 194 yards through the air and threw 2 TD's. He ended the game with no interceptions. Tra Minter led the team in rushing for the game. His longest run of the day went for 20 yards but he wasn't able to run one in for a touchdown. He racked up a total of 45 yards on 17 carries which had him averaging 2.6 yards per tote. Kawaan Baker was the receiving yardage leader by earning 126 yards on 4 catches. He notched an average of 31.5 yards per reception for the game. The Jaguars ended up running the ball 24 times and racked up 53 yards which had them averaging 2.2 yards per rush. For the game, they ran 39 plays which added up to 247 yards. In the game, the Jaguars racked up 4 first downs and they had a total of 4 penalties for 25 yards which tells us that they had an average outing in terms of discipline. When discussing the defense, South Alabama conceded 9 completions on 17 attempts totaling 78 yards, and a completion percentage of 52.9%. Overall, they gave up 388 yards but didn't get any takeaways. On the ground, the Jaguars conceded 310 yards on 66 carries which gave them an average of 4.7 yards per attempt allowed.

The Jaguars head into this matchup 1-5 in 2019. In terms of scoring, they are one of the worst in the country with an average of 16.8 points per contest, which has them at 123rd in college football. As a unit, they are averaging 170 yards on the ground per game which is 7th in the Sun Belt Conference. For total yardage, they sit in 10th in the Sun Belt Conference and 120th in college football with 1,914 yards. The Jaguars have one of the middle tier defenses in Division 1, allowing 29.3 points per game ranking them 5th in the Sun Belt Conference. When it comes to yards through the air, the Jaguars have allowed 894 yards. Teams are completing 64.3% of the throws they are attempting against them and averaging 8.6 yards per attempt. In regard to yards on the ground, South Alabama is allowing 201.2 yards per game which has them at 7th in the conference and 106th in D-1. They are allowing teams to run for an average of 4.6 yards per carry ranking them 6th in the Sun Belt Conference and 91st in college football overall. Overall, they have conceded 1,207 yards rushing through 6 contests.

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The last time they took the field, the Troy Trojans played the Missouri Tigers and took the loss by a score of 42-10. Trevon Woolfolk led the team on the ground in the game. His longest run of the day went for 8 yards but he wasn't able to run one in for a touchdown. He ran for a total of 62 yards via 18 carries which had him averaging 3.4 yards per tote. Khalil McClain was the leader in receiving yardage by earning 44 yards on 3 receptions. He averaged 14.7 yards per catch in the game. Running the show from under center for the Trojans was Kaleb Barker who went 15/26 with 92 yards passing and added 1 touchdown. He gave away 2 interceptions on the day. The Trojans ran the ball 31 times and racked up 61 yards which gave them an average of 2.0 yards per carry. On the day, the Trojans totaled 13 1st downs and they had 7 penalties for 60 yards which is telling of how their week of practice went. In the game, they finished with a total of 66 plays which added up to 211 yards. On the defensive side of the ball, Troy allowed 18 catches on 27 tries totaling 278 yards, and a completion percentage of 66.7%. On the ground, the Trojans allowed 165 yards on 36 attempts which means they had an average of 4.6 yards per carry allowed. On the day, they gave up 443 yards but didn't add to their total of forced turnovers.

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The Trojans head into this game 2-3. In discussing the offensive production, the Trojans have one of the most prolific offenses in the country. Troy needs to do more to make teams respect their running game by averaging 149 yards on the ground per contest, which has them at 84th in D-1. As a unit, they have compiled a total of 745 yards rushing through 5 games, so they'll need to look to improve on these numbers if they want to compete with the better teams in the nation. The Trojans average 452.6 yards per game overall putting them 37th in Division 1 and 4th in the Sun Belt Conference. The Trojans are giving up 32 points per game ranking them 6th in the conference and 101st in Division 1. Their passing defense is one of the least effective units in college football. They are allowing 308.6 passing yards per contest. For passing yards allowed per game, the Trojans currently sit at 10th in the Sun Belt. In regard to points allowed, they have given up 160 total points. When talking about yards rushing, they are allowing 93.8 yards per game ranking them 14th in college football and 1st in the Sun Belt Conference. For the 2019 season, they have allowed 469 yards rushing and 5 rushing TDs.

Who will win tonight's Jaguars/Trojans college football game against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take the Jaguars +14.5

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