Ole Miss at Alabama NCAA Football Point Spread Picks 9/28/2019

Saturday, September 28, 2019

Bryant-Denny Stadium

Tua Tagovailoa and the Alabama Crimson Tide play the Ole Miss Rebels at Bryant-Denny Stadium on Saturday, September 28, 2019. Ole Miss opens this game as 34.5-point underdogs. The Rebels are 1-3-0 ATS and 2-2-0 when betting on the total. The Crimson Tide are 2-2-0 when wagering on the over/under and 2-2-0 against the spread.

Key Ole Miss Rebels Injuries

09/22/19 QB Matt Corral Ribs left last game, is questionable Saturday vs Alabama
09/12/19 LB Mohamed Sanogo Ankle is out indefinitely

Key Alabama Crimson Tide Injuries

09/22/19 DL DJ Dale Ankle is questionable Saturday vs Mississippi
09/22/19 DL Justin Eboigbe Foot is questionable Saturday vs Mississippi
09/22/19 OL Chris Owens Undisclosed is questionable Saturday vs Mississippi
09/22/19 OL Deonte Brown Suspension is questionable Saturday vs Mississippi
09/22/19 LB Terrell Lewis Undisclosed is questionable Saturday vs Mississippi
09/16/19 DL Labryan Ray Foot is out indefinitely
09/13/19 DL Antonio Alfano Academics is out indefinitely
08/31/19 OL Emil Ekiyor Jr. Knee is out indefinitely
08/28/19 LB Dylan Moses Knee is out for season
08/15/19 RB Trey Sanders Knee is out indefinitely
08/12/19 LB Joshua McMillon Knee is out for season

In their last game, the Ole Miss Rebels took on the California Golden Bears and took the loss by a score of 28-20. Running the show from under center for the Rebels was Matt Corral who went 22/41 with 266 yards passing but wasn't able to get any balls in the endzone via the pass. He ended the game without an interception. Matt Corral led the team in rushing for that game. His longest run of the day went for 21 yards and he ran for 1 touchdown for the game. He ran for 56 yards via 16 carries which means he ran for an average of 3.5 yards per run. Elijah Moore was the receiving yardage leader with a tally of 102 yards on 11 receptions. He had an average of 9.3 yards per catch for that game. The Ole Miss Rebels ended up rushing 38 times and racked up 177 yards which gave them an average of 4.7 yards per rushing attempt. Overall, they totaled 86 plays for 525 yards. In the game, the Rebels totaled 27 1st downs and they totaled 6 infractions for 55 yards which is telling of how their week of practice went. On the defensive side of the ball, Ole Miss gave up 24 catches on 36 throws totaling 373 yards, and a completion percentage of 66.7%. In the game, they conceded 433 yards and earned 1 takeaway. On the ground, the Rebels gave up 60 yards on 33 runs allowing their opponent an average of 1.8 yards per carry allowed.

The Rebels come into this matchup with a record of 2-2 this year. For total yardage, they sit in 12th in the Southeastern Conference and 44th in college football with 1,640 yards. They are in the middle of the pack in regard to scoring in the nation averaging 25.3 points per contest, which has them at 97th in college football. As a team, they are averaging 178.5 rushing yards per contest which is 7th in the Southeastern Conference. The Rebels have one of the average defenses in the nation, giving up 22.3 points per game putting them 8th in the Southeastern Conference. In discussing yards on the ground, Ole Miss is allowing 94.8 yards per game which has them at 4th in the conference and 26th in the country. They are allowing teams to run for an average of 2.8 yards per rush ranking them 2nd in the Southeastern Conference and 20th in D-1 overall. In total, they have allowed 379 yards rushing through 4 games. When it comes to passing yards, the Rebels have conceded 926 yards. Opponents are completing 66% of the throws they are attempting against them and averaging 7.5 yards per attempt.

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The last time they played, the Alabama Crimson Tide faced the Southern Miss Golden Eagles and earned the win by a score of 49-7. Taking the lead at quarterback for the Crimson Tide was Tua Tagovailoa who went 17/21 with 293 yards passing and completed 5 touchdowns. He walked away from this game with no interceptions. Najee Harris paced the team in rushing for that contest. He broke a long run for 20 yards but he never crossed the endzone by way of the rush. He scurried for 110 yards on 14 carries which had him averaging 7.9 yards per carry. Henry Ruggs III was the receiving yardage leader by racking up 148 yards on 4 catches. He averaged 37.0 yards per catch for that contest. The Alabama Crimson Tide ran the ball 35 times and generated 176 yards giving them an average of 5.0 yards per carry. On the day, they ran 60 plays which gave them a total of 514 yards. For the contest, the Crimson Tide had a total of 24 1st downs and they had a total of 1 infraction for 15 yards telling us that this team was extremely focused in this game. In terms of defense, Alabama conceded 17 completions on 26 throws for a total of 174 yards, and a completion percentage of 65.4%. Against the run, the Crimson Tide conceded 52 yards on 32 runs which gave the opponent an average of 1.6 yards per attempt allowed. For the game, they gave up 226 yards and earned 2 turnovers.

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The Crimson Tide head into this game 4-0. In discussing the offensive production, the Crimson Tide have one of the best offenses in college football. Alabama has built a respectable ground game this year by averaging 178.8 yards on the ground per game, putting them 53rd in the country. As a unit, they have compiled a total of 715 yards rushing through 4 games, so they'll look to the run game to try to keep the opponents off balance so they'll have open receivers. The Crimson Tide average 550 yards per game overall which has them at 6th in college football and 2nd in the Southeastern Conference. The Crimson Tide are conceding 10.8 points per contest ranking them 2nd in the SEC and 9th in the nation. Their passing defense is one of the elite groups in D-1. They are giving up 189 passing yards per contest. For passing yards allowed per game, the Crimson Tide currently sit at 3rd in the conference. In terms of points given up, they have allowed 43 total points. In regard to yards rushing, they are conceding 98.8 yards per game which puts them at 31st in the country and 7th in the SEC. This year, they have conceded a total of 395 yards rushing and 0 rushing touchdowns.

Who will win tonight's Rebels/Crimson Tide college football game against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take the Rebels +34.5

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