Ole Miss vs Mississippi State NCAA Football Picks 11/28/2019

Game: Ole Miss Rebels vs Mississippi State Bulldogs

Date: Thursday, November 28, 2019

Week 14

Location: Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville, MS

TV: ESPN

Odds/Point Spread: Mississippi State -3

Total/Over-Under: 59.5

Tommy Stevens and the Mississippi State Bulldogs host the Ole Miss Rebels at Davis Wade Stadium on Thursday, November 28, 2019. Mississippi State opens this contest as 3-point favorites. The Rebels are 7-4-0 ATS and 5-6-0 when betting on the total. The Bulldogs are 6-5-0 when wagering on the over/under and 4-7-0 against the spread.

In their last game, the Ole Miss Rebels played the LSU Tigers and lost 58-37. John Rhys Plumlee led the team in rushing for that game. His longest run of the day went for 60 yards and he ran for 4 TD's for the game. He rushed for 212 yards on 21 carries which had him averaging 10.1 yards per carry. Elijah Moore was the leader in receiving yardage with a tally of 143 yards on 9 receptions. He averaged 15.9 yards per catch for that game. Taking the lead at quarterback for the Rebels was John Rhys Plumlee who went 9/16 with 123 yards through the air but wasn't able to get any balls in the endzone via the pass. He threw 1 interception in the game. The Rebels rushed the ball a total of 44 times and added 402 yards earning them an average of 9.1 yards per rush. In all, they ran 71 plays for 614 yards. For the game, the Rebels racked up 26 1st downs and they had a total of 5 penalties for 50 yards which is telling of how their week of practice went. When discussing the defense, Ole Miss allowed 32 completions on 42 attempts for a total of 489 yards, and a completion percentage of 76.2%. Against the run, the Rebels allowed 227 yards on 38 attempts which is an average of 6.0 yards per rushing attempt allowed. On the day, they allowed a total of 716 yards and earned 2 turnovers.

The Rebels step onto the field holding a record of 4-7 in 2019. In terms of scoring, they are one of the marginal teams in the country with an average of 27.2 points per contest, which has them at 80th in the country. As a unit, they are averaging 261.5 yards on the ground per game which is 1st in the SEC. For total yardage, they currently sit at 3rd in the conference and 31st in the country with 4,960 yards. The Rebels have one of the average defenses in the nation, allowing 27 points per game ranking them 11th in the Southeastern Conference. When it comes to yards through the air, the Rebels have conceded 2,083 yards. Teams are completing 66.2% of the throws they are attempting against them and averaging 7.7 yards per try. In terms of yards on the ground, Ole Miss is allowing 132.6 yards per contest which has them at 8th in the conference and 34th in D-1. Opposing teams are running for an average of 3.9 yards per carry which has them at 8th in the Southeastern Conference and 48th in college football overall. Overall, they have allowed 1,459 rushing yards through 11 contests.

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In their last game, the Mississippi State Bulldogs took on the Abilene Christian Wildcats and earned the victory by a score of 45-7. Running the show from under center for the Bulldogs was Tommy Stevens who went 13/27 with 165 yards through the air and tossed 2 TD's. He ended the game with no interceptions. Kylin Hill led the team in rushing for that game. He tore off a long run of 22 yards but he never crossed the endzone by way of the rush. He racked up a total of 153 yards on 16 carries which had him averaging 9.6 yards per carry. Kylin Hill was the receiving yardage leader with a total of 84 yards on 3 catches. He averaged 28.0 yards per reception for that game. The Bulldogs ended up running the ball 40 times and racked up 372 yards which gave them an average of 9.3 yards per rush. On the day, they finished with a total of 70 plays for 577 yards. For the contest, the Bulldogs totaled 26 first downs and they totaled 7 penalties for 60 yards which tells us their heads weren't always in the game. In terms of defense, Mississippi State gave up 25 catches on 42 attempts totaling 255 yards, and a completion percentage of 59.5%. On the ground, the Bulldogs gave up 27 yards on 28 carries which gave them an average of 1.0 yards per rushing attempt allowed. Overall, they conceded 282 yards and earned 2 turnovers.

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The Bulldogs head into this matchup 5-6. In discussing the offensive production, the Bulldogs have one of the middle tier offenses in the country. Mississippi State has shown the nation they have a formidable rushing attack by averaging 228.5 rushing yards per game, which has them at 19th in D-1. As a team, they have a total of 2,514 rushing yards through 11 contests, and if they want to continue their dominance, they'll want to keep running the ball. The Bulldogs average 410.6 yards per contest overall putting them 63rd in D-1 and 8th in the SEC. The Bulldogs are conceding 28.8 points per game ranking them 12th in the SEC and 73rd in college football. Their pass defense is one of the middling units in Division 1. They are conceding 241 passing yards per game. For yards through the air allowed per game, the Bulldogs currently sit at 13th in the SEC. When talking about points given up, they have given up 317 points in total. When talking about rushing yards, they are conceding 149.6 yards per game which puts them at 61st in Division 1 and 10th in the Southeastern Conference. This year, they have allowed 1,646 yards rushing and 22 rushing TDs.

Who will win tonight's Rebels/Bulldogs college football game against the spread?

Josh's Pick: Take the Rebels +3

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