New Mexico at Liberty NCAA Football Picks 9/28/2019

Saturday, September 28, 2019

Williams Stadium

Williams Stadium is the venue where Stephen Calvert and the Liberty Flames will take on the New Mexico Lobos on Saturday. New Mexico opens this contest as 8-point underdogs. The Lobos are 1-2-0 ATS and 3-0-0 when betting on the total. The Flames are 0-3-0 when wagering on the over/under and 2-2-0 against the spread.

Key New Mexico Lobos Injuries

09/18/19 QB Brandt Hughes Shoulder is out for season
09/10/19 DL Aaron Blackwell ACL is out for season

Key Liberty Flames Injuries

09/16/19 FB Michael Bollinger Leg is out for season

In their last outing, the New Mexico Lobos took on the New Mexico State Aggies and earned the victory by a score of 55-52. Ahmari Davis led the team on the ground for the game. His longest run of the day went for 23 yards and he notched 2 touchdowns for the game. He rushed for 133 yards by way of 28 carries which meant he was running for 4.8 yards per carry. Jordan Kress was the leader in receiving yardage by earning 122 yards on 3 catches. He averaged 40.7 yards per catch for the game. Leading the way at QB for the Lobos was Tevaka Tuioti who went 16/28 with 355 yards through the air and threw 3 touchdowns. He threw 1 pick on the day. The New Mexico Lobos ended up running the ball 51 times and totaled 243 yards which had them averaging 4.8 yards per rushing attempt. On the day, they ran 79 plays which gave them a total of 598 yards. For the game, the Lobos racked up a total of 27 first downs and they had 9 penalties for 80 yards which is telling in terms of discipline. On the defensive side of the ball, New Mexico conceded 30 completions on 47 tries totaling 335 yards, and a completion percentage of 63.8%. On the day, they gave up a total of 489 yards and earned 1 takeaway. On the ground, the Lobos conceded 154 yards on 34 carries giving the other team an average of 4.5 yards per run allowed.

The Lobos head into this matchup 2-1 for this year. They are one of top scoring teams in the nation with an average of 36 points per contest, ranking them 37th in college football. As a unit, they are averaging 200 rushing yards per contest which is 4th in the conference. For total yards, they rank 5th in the MWC and 72nd in college football with 1,446 yards. The Lobos have one of the worst defenses in the nation, giving up 49.7 points per game which has them at 12th in the MWC. When it comes to yards rushing, New Mexico is allowing 142 yards per game which has them at 9th in the conference and 66th in Division 1. Opposing teams are running for an average of 4 yards per carry which has them at 9th in the MWC and 71st in the country overall. In total, they have allowed 426 rushing yards through 3 contests. When it comes to passing yards, the Lobos have conceded 846 yards. Opponents are completing 61.2% of the throws they are attempting against them and averaging 9.0 yards per attempt.

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The last time they played, the Liberty Flames took on the Hampton Pirates and notched a win by a score of 62-27. Brandon Robinson paced the team in rushing for that contest. He broke a long run for 75 yards and he ran for 2 touchdowns in the game. He ran for a total of 105 yards via 7 carries which gave him an average of 15.0 yards per carry. Antonio Gandy-Golden was the receiving yardage leader with a total of 181 yards on 4 catches. He averaged 45.3 yards per reception for that contest. Leading the way at QB for the Flames was Stephen Calvert who went 10/16 with 319 yards passing and tossed 2 touchdowns. He ended the game without an interception. The Liberty Flames ran the football 38 times and racked up a total of 256 yards giving them an average of 6.7 yards per rushing attempt. In all, they ran 55 plays for 575 yards. For the game, the Flames racked up 21 first downs and they had 6 infractions for 65 yards which is telling of how their week of practice went. When it comes to their defensive performance, Liberty allowed 20 catches on 26 tries totaling 292 yards, and a completion percentage of 76.9%. On the day, they allowed 420 yards and forced 1 turnover. In the running game, the Flames allowed 128 yards on 36 runs which gave them an average of 3.6 yards per attempt allowed.

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The Flames come into this game with a record of 2-2. Liberty needs to do more to make teams respect their running game by averaging 118.3 rushing yards per game, ranking them 104th in the country. As a unit, they have a total of 473 yards rushing through 4 games, so they are going to want to make some changes to the ground game if they want to make teams respect them. The Flames average 393.5 yards per game overall ranking them 78th in the nation and 2nd among Independent teams. The Flames are conceding 25.8 points per game ranking them 3rd among Independent teams and 70th in D-1. In terms of points allowed, they have given up 103 total points. In regard to yards rushing, they are conceding 233.3 yards per contest which puts them at 124th in Division 1 and 4th among Independent teams. For the 2019 season, they have allowed a total of 933 yards on the ground and 6 rushing touchdowns. Their passing defense is one of the mediocre units in college football. They are giving up 205.3 passing yards per contest. For yards through the air allowed per game, the Flames currently sit at 3rd among Independent teams.

Who will win tonight's Lobos/Flames college football game against the spread?

Josh's Pick: Take the Lobos +8

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