New Mexico State at New Mexico NCAA Football Picks & Predictions 9/21/2019

Saturday, September 21, 2019

Dreamstyle Stadium

Dreamstyle Stadium is the venue where Tevaka Tuioti and the New Mexico Lobos will play the New Mexico State Aggies on Saturday. New Mexico State opens this matchup as 5.5-point underdogs. The over/under is set at 69. The Aggies are 1-2-0 ATS and 1-2-0 when betting on the total. The Lobos are 2-0-0 when wagering on the over/under and 1-1-0 against the spread.

Key New Mexico State Aggies Injuries

No key injuries to report

Key New Mexico Lobos Injuries

09/15/19 QB Brandt Hughes Shoulder is questionable Saturday vs New Mexico State
09/10/19 DL Aaron Blackwell ACL is out for season

In their last contest, the New Mexico State Aggies faced the San Diego State Aztecs and were beaten 31-10. Leading the way at QB for the Aggies was Josh Adkins who went 26/41 with 299 yards through the air and added 1 touchdown. He gave away 2 interceptions during the game. Jason Huntley led the team on the ground for the game. He tore off a long run of 22 yards but wasn't able to convert a rushing touchdown. He rushed for 41 yards via 8 carries which gave him an average of 5.1 yards per run. Tony Nicholson was the receiving yardage leader with a total of 78 yards on 7 catches. He earned an average of 11.1 yards per reception for the game. The New Mexico State Aggies ran the ball a total of 24 times and added 30 yards which gave them an average of 1.3 yards per attempt. For the contest, the Aggies racked up a total of 17 1st downs and they had a total of 8 penalties for 68 yards telling us that this team had an undisciplined week of practice. For the game, they ran 65 plays for a total of 329 yards. When discussing the defense, New Mexico State conceded 16 completions on 25 throws for a total of 106 yards, and a completion percentage of 64.0%. On the day, they conceded a total of 397 yards and forced 1 takeaways. Against the run, the Aggies conceded 291 yards on 47 attempts which gave them an average of 6.2 yards per rushing attempt allowed.

The Aggies step onto the field holding a record of 0-3 this season. In terms of scoring, they are one of the worst in the country averaging 9 points per game, which has them at 130th in D-1. As a unit, they are averaging 65.7 yards on the ground per game which is 10th in the Sun Belt. For total yards, they currently sit at 11th in the conference and 130th in D-1 with 579 yards. The Aggies have one of the worst defenses in college football, allowing 50.3 points per contest which has them at 11th in the Sun Belt Conference. When talking about rushing yards, New Mexico State is giving up 143 yards per game putting them 4th in the Sun Belt Conference and 70th in D-1. Opposing teams are running for an average of 8.3 yards per rush putting them 11th in the Sun Belt Conference and 130th in the country overall. In total, they have conceded 429 rushing yards through 3 games. When it comes to yards through the air, the Aggies have conceded 382 yards. Opponents are completing 73.2% of the passes they throw against them and averaging 9.7 yards per attempt.

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In their last contest, the New Mexico Lobos played the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and took the defeat by a score of 66-14. Bryson Carroll paced the team on the ground during the game. He tore off a long run of 47 yards and he ran for 1 TD for the game. He racked up a total of 69 yards via 6 carries which means he ran for an average of 11.5 yards per carry. Aaron Molina was the leader in receiving yardage by racking up 79 yards on 2 receptions. He had an average of 39.5 yards per catch during the game. Leading the way at QB for the Lobos was Tevaka Tuioti who went 6/13 with 132 yards passing but didn't get a passing TD in the game. He walked away from this game with no interceptions. The New Mexico Lobos ran the ball a total of 46 times and generated 212 yards which gave them an average of 4.6 yards per attempt. In the game, they ran 75 plays for a total of 363 yards. For the contest, the Lobos earned a total of 22 1st downs and they totaled 5 penalties for 39 yards which is telling of how their week of practice went. When discussing the defense, New Mexico gave up 17 completions on 27 throws for a total of 434 yards, and a completion percentage of 63.0%. On the ground, the Lobos gave up 157 yards on 38 carries giving the other team an average of 4.1 yards per run allowed. Overall, they gave up 591 yards and forced 0 turnovers.

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The Lobos head into this game 1-1. In discussing the offensive production, the Lobos have an offense that could be called mediocre in the country. New Mexico is making teams consider moving more up into the box by averaging 178.5 yards on the ground per game, which has them at 57th in college football. As a unit, they have a total of 357 rushing yards through 2 contests, so they'll look to the run game to try to keep the opponents off balance so they'll have open receivers. The Lobos average 424 yards per game overall putting them 57th in the nation and 5th in the conference. The Lobos are conceding 48.5 points per contest which puts them at 12th in the MWC and 129th in college football. In terms of points given up, they have allowed 97 points in total. In regard to yards rushing, they are allowing 136 yards per game ranking them 64th in college football and 6th in the conference. This season, they have given up 272 rushing yards and 4 rushing touchdowns. Their pass defense is one of the most anemic groups in Division 1. They are giving up 438.5 passing yards per contest. For passing yards allowed per game, the Lobos are currently ranked 12th in the MWC.

Who will win tonight's Aggies/Lobos college football game against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take the Aggies +5.5

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