Liberty at New Mexico State Expert College Football Picks Against the Spread 10/5/2019

Saturday, October 5, 2019

Aggie Memorial Stadium

Josh Adkins and the New Mexico State Aggies host the Liberty Flames at Aggie Memorial Stadium on Saturday, October 5, 2019. Liberty opens this contest as 5-point favorites. The Flames are 2-2-0 ATS and 0-3-0 when betting on the total. The Aggies are 2-2-0 when wagering on the over/under and 2-2-0 against the spread.

Key Liberty Flames Injuries

09/16/19 FB Michael Bollinger Leg is out for season

Key New Mexico State Aggies Injuries

09/18/19 WR Drew Dan Wrist is out for season

In the last game they played, the Liberty Flames took on the New Mexico Lobos and notched a win by a score of 17-10. Joshua Mack led the team in rushing during the game. He had a long run of 38 yards but he never crossed the endzone by way of the rush. He ran for 95 yards on 14 carries which means he ran for an average of 6.8 yards per carry. Antonio Gandy-Golden was the leader in receiving yardage by earning 144 yards on 6 catches. He had an average of 24.0 yards per reception during the game. Running the show from under center for the Flames was Stephen Calvert who went 24/36 with 306 yards passing and added 2 TD's. He finished this contest without throwing a pick. The Liberty Flames ended up running the ball 30 times and generated 161 yards giving them an average of 5.4 yards per attempt. In all, they ran 66 plays which added up to 467 yards. Overall, the Flames racked up a total of 19 first downs and they totaled 3 infractions for 30 yards which is telling in terms of how disciplined they are. In terms of defense, Liberty gave up 12 completions on 26 throws totaling 139 yards, and a completion percentage of 46.2%. Against the run, the Flames gave up 224 yards on 42 tries which means they allowed 5.3 yards per rushing attempt allowed. For the game, they gave up a total of 363 yards and earned 2 takeaways.

The Flames come into this game with a record of 3-2 for the 2019 season. For total yards, they sit in 1st among Independent teams and 38th in college football with 2,041 yards. They are in the middle of the pack in regard to scoring in the nation with an average of 25.6 points per contest, which has them at 91st in college football. As a team, they are averaging 126.8 yards on the ground per contest which is 4th among Independent teams. The Flames have one of the average defenses in college football, allowing 22.6 points per game which has them at 3rd among Independent teams. In discussing yards on the ground, Liberty is giving up 228.4 yards per contest ranking them 5th among D-1 Independent teams and 123rd in college football. Opposing teams are running for an average of 5.4 yards per rush putting them 4th among D-1 Independent teams and 118th in college football overall. Overall, they have conceded 1,142 yards rushing through 5 contests. When it comes to yards through the air, the Flames have conceded 960 yards. Opponents are completing 55.2% of the throws they are attempting against them and averaging 6.6 yards per attempt.

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In their last contest, the New Mexico State Aggies took on the Fresno State Bulldogs and took the defeat by a score of 30-17. Jason Huntley paced the team on the ground during the game. He had a long run of 23 yards and he ran for 1 TD for the game. He racked up a total of 82 yards via 9 carries which meant he averaged 9.1 yards per tote. Tony Nicholson was the receiving yardage leader by earning 81 yards on 6 catches. He earned an average of 13.5 yards per catch during the game. Leading the way at QB for the Aggies was Josh Adkins who went 26/46 with 210 yards passing and completed 1 TD. He threw 3 interceptions during the game. The New Mexico State Aggies ran the football 22 times and generated 105 yards giving them an average of 4.8 yards per carry. In the game, the Aggies earned 17 first downs and they had 3 penalties for 22 yards which is telling of the great week of practice this squad had. In all, they totaled 69 plays for 315 yards. When discussing the defense, New Mexico State allowed 20 completions on 31 tries for a total of 147 yards, and a completion percentage of 64.5%. In the running game, the Aggies allowed 239 yards on 38 runs which gave the opponent an average of 6.3 yards per run allowed. Overall, they gave up a total of 386 yards and forced 1 turnover.

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The Aggies head into this matchup 0-5. New Mexico State is having a year to forget in the ground game by averaging 76.2 yards on the ground per contest, ranking them 128th in the nation. As a team, they have compiled a total of 381 rushing yards through 5 games, so they'll need to look to improve on these numbers if they want to compete with the better teams in the nation. The Aggies average 279.4 yards per game overall putting them 127th in college football and 10th in the Sun Belt. The Aggies are allowing 47.2 points per contest ranking them 11th in the Sun Belt Conference and 129th in the country. Their pass defense is one of the middle of the road units in the nation. They are conceding 250.6 passing yards per game. For yards through the air allowed per game, the Aggies are ranked 5th in the Sun Belt. When talking about points given up, they have given up 236 points in total. In terms of yards rushing, they are allowing 192.6 yards per game ranking them 108th in Division 1 and 7th in the Sun Belt. In 2019, they have given up 963 yards rushing and 11 rushing TDs.

Who will win tonight's Flames/Aggies college football game against the spread?

Guy's Pick: Take the Flames -5

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