Kentucky at Mississippi State NCAA Football Picks 9/21/2019

Saturday, September 21, 2019

Davis Wade Stadium

Tommy Stevens and the Mississippi State Bulldogs host the Kentucky Wildcats at Davis Wade Stadium on Saturday, September 21, 2019. Kentucky opens this contest as 7.5-point underdogs. The O/U has been set at 49.5. The Wildcats are 3-0-0 ATS and 3-0-0 when betting on the total. The Bulldogs are 3-0-0 when wagering on the over/under and 1-2-0 against the spread.

Key Kentucky Wildcats Injuries

09/14/19 QB Nik Scalzo ACL is out for season
09/08/19 QB Terry Wilson Knee is out for season
08/30/19 S Davonte Robinson Quad is out for season
08/07/19 WR Isaiah Epps Foot is out indefinitely

Key Mississippi State Bulldogs Injuries

09/15/19 OL Dareuan Parker Undisclosed is questionable Saturday vs Kentucky
09/15/19 OL Darryl Williams Undisclosed is questionable Saturday vs Kentucky
09/15/19 OL Evans Wilkerson Undisclosed is questionable Saturday vs Kentucky

In the last game they played, the Kentucky Wildcats played the Florida Gators and were defeated 29-21. Taking the lead at quarterback for the Wildcats was Sawyer Smith who went 23/35 with 267 yards through the air and added 2 touchdowns. He gave away 3 picks on the day. Kavosiey Smoke paced the team on the ground for the game. He tore off a long run of 16 yards but he wasn't able to rush for a TD on the day. He ran for 81 yards on 16 carries which meant he averaged 5.1 yards per carry. Ahmad Wagner led the team in receiving yardage with a tally of 70 yards on 3 catches. He averaged 23.3 yards per reception for the game. The Kentucky Wildcats ran the ball 41 times and generated 140 yards which had them averaging 3.4 yards per rush. For the contest, the Wildcats had a total of 26 1st downs and they totaled 9 penalties for 79 yards which shows us that this team didn't have their heads in this game. In the game, they finished with a total of 76 plays which added up to 407 yards. When discussing the defense, Kentucky conceded 21 catches on 30 throws for a total of 300 yards, and a completion percentage of 70.0%. For the game, they allowed a total of 438 yards and forced 2 turnovers. On the ground, the Wildcats conceded 138 yards on 26 attempts giving the other team an average of 5.3 yards per rushing attempt allowed.

The Wildcats head into this matchup 2-1 this season. For total yards, they rank 8th in the SEC and 40th in college football with 1,290 yards. They are one of the most potent offenses in the country with an average of 32.3 points per game, putting them 59th in college football. As a unit, they are averaging 185 rushing yards per game which is 6th in the conference. The Wildcats have one of the middle tier defenses in Division 1, giving up 23.3 points per game which has them at 10th in the Southeastern Conference. When it comes to passing yards, the Wildcats have conceded 735 yards. Teams are completing 61.1% of the passes they throw against them and averaging 7.4 yards per attempt. When it comes to rushing yards, Kentucky is giving up 122.7 yards per game which has them at 9th in the conference and 51st in the country. Opposing teams are running for an average of 4.2 yards per carry which has them at 11th in the Southeastern Conference and 87th in D-1 overall. Overall, they have conceded 368 yards rushing through 3 contests.

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The Mississippi State Bulldogs last played the Kansas State Wildcats as a favorite by 7 against the spread and lost 31-24. Kylin Hill led the team on the ground for the game. He had a long run of 22 yards but wasn't able to convert a rushing touchdown. He rushed for 111 yards via 24 carries which meant he averaged 4.6 yards per carry. Osirus Mitchell led the team in receiving yardage by racking up 74 yards on 5 receptions. He had an average of 14.8 yards per catch for the game. Taking the lead at quarterback for the Bulldogs was Tommy Stevens who went 7/15 with 100 yards through the air and tossed 1 TD. He gave away 2 picks on the day. The Mississippi State Bulldogs ended up rushing 44 times and racked up 201 yards earning them an average of 4.6 yards per attempt. In the game, they ran 71 plays for 352 yards. On the day, the Bulldogs earned a total of 21 1st downs and they had 7 penalties for 83 yards which tells us their heads weren't always in the game. When discussing the defense, Mississippi State gave up 10 completions on 18 attempts for a total of 123 yards, and a completion percentage of 55.6%. On the day, they allowed a total of 269 yards and forced 3 takeaways. On the ground, the Bulldogs gave up 146 yards on 35 runs which means they allowed 4.2 yards per run allowed.

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The Bulldogs come into this game with a record of 2-1. In terms of offensive proficiency, the Bulldogs have one of the most prolific offenses in D-1. Mississippi State has made teams game plan around their running game by averaging 224 yards on the ground per game, putting them 33rd in the nation. As a team, they have compiled a total of 672 rushing yards through 3 games, so they'll look to continue their dominance on the ground to grind out wins. The Bulldogs average 411.7 yards per contest overall ranking them 68th in the nation and 11th in the SEC. The Bulldogs are giving up 24.7 points per contest which puts them at 11th in the Southeastern Conference and 70th in D-1. Their passing defense is one of the mediocre units in the nation. They are giving up 208 passing yards per game. For passing yards allowed per game, the Bulldogs are currently ranked 9th in the conference. In discussing points given up, they have allowed 74 points in total. When it comes to yards rushing, they are conceding 139.7 yards per game which puts them at 66th in D-1 and 11th in the conference. For 2019, they have given up 419 yards rushing and 5.1 rushing touchdowns.

Who will win tonight's Wildcats/Bulldogs college football game against the spread?

Josh's Pick: Take the Wildcats +7.5

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