Illinois at Minnesota Expert College Football Picks 10/5/2019

Saturday, October 5, 2019

TCF Bank Stadium

Tanner Morgan and the Minnesota Golden Gophers play the Illinois Fighting Illini at TCF Bank Stadium on Saturday, October 5, 2019. Minnesota opens this contest as 13.5-point favorites. The Fighting Illini are 2-2-0 ATS and 2-2-0 when betting on the total. The Golden Gophers are 2-1-0 when wagering on the over/under and 0-2-1 against the spread.

Key Illinois Fighting Illini Injuries

09/29/19 DL Jamal Woods Undisclosed is questionable Saturday vs Minnesota U
09/29/19 DL Kenyon Jackson Undisclosed is questionable Saturday vs Minnesota U
09/29/19 DB Stanley Green Undisclosed is questionable Saturday vs Minnesota U
09/02/19 RB Mike Epstein Knee is out for season
08/22/19 CB Marquez Beason Knee is out for season
07/08/19 DL Bobby Roundtree Back is out for season

Key Minnesota Golden Gophers Injuries

09/29/19 RB Mohamed Ibrahim Foot is questionable Saturday vs Illinois
08/03/19 QB Zack Annexstad Foot is out indefinitely

The last time they played, the Illinois Fighting Illini took on the Nebraska Cornhuskers and were defeated 42-38. Reggie Corbin led the team on the ground for that game. He tore off a long run of 66 yards and he added 1 TD for the contest. He scurried for 134 yards via 20 carries which means he ran for an average of 6.7 yards per tote. Ricky Smalling was the receiving yardage leader by racking up 41 yards on 5 receptions. He earned an average of 8.2 yards per reception for that game. Running the show from under center for the Fighting Illini was Brandon Peters who went 9/22 with 78 yards through the air and threw 1 touchdown. He walked away with 1 interception on the day. The Illinois Fighting Illini ended up rushing 38 times and racked up a total of 221 yards which earned them an average of 5.8 yards per carry. In the game, they ran 61 plays which added up to 299 yards. In the game, the Fighting Illini totaled 14 first downs and they had 4 penalties for 30 yards which tells us their heads weren't always in the game. On the defensive side of the ball, Illinois conceded 22 catches on 34 tries for a total of 327 yards, and a completion percentage of 64.7%. For this contest, they gave up 690 yards and forced 4 takeaways. Against the run, the Fighting Illini conceded 363 yards on 64 tries giving the other team an average of 5.7 yards per run allowed.

The Fighting Illini head into this matchup 2-2 for 2019. They are one of the most potent offenses in the country averaging 35.5 points per contest, which has them at 37th in D-1. As a unit, they are averaging 182 rushing yards per contest which is 6th in the Big Ten Conference. For total yards, they are currently ranked 12th in the Big Ten and 98th in D-1 with 1,524 yards. The Fighting Illini have one of the middle tier defenses in the country, giving up 25.5 points per contest putting them 10th in the Big Ten. When it comes to passing yards, the Fighting Illini have allowed 796 yards. Teams are completing 60.5% of the passes they throw against them and averaging 8.1 yards per try. When it comes to yards rushing, Illinois is allowing 150.3 yards per contest putting them 11th in the Big Ten Conference and 70th in Division 1. Opposing teams are running for an average of 3.5 yards per rush which has them at 7th in the conference and 42nd in Division 1 overall. In total, they have allowed 601 yards rushing through 4 contests.

Related: Gambling 101 Series on How Odds are Calculated - Watch Tony George Explain

In their last contest, the Minnesota Golden Gophers took on the Purdue Boilermakers and earned the victory by a score of 38-31. Rodney Smith led the team on the ground for the game. He broke a long run for 17 yards and he added 1 TD for the contest. He ran for 115 yards on 22 carries which meant he averaged 5.2 yards per run. Rashod Bateman was the leader in receiving yardage with a total of 177 yards on 6 receptions. He notched an average of 29.5 yards per catch for the game. Leading the way at QB for the Golden Gophers was Tanner Morgan who went 21/22 with 396 yards passing and threw 4 TD's. He finished this contest without throwing a pick. The Minnesota Golden Gophers ended up rushing 34 times and earned a total of 92 yards which gave them an average of 2.7 yards per rush. On the day, they ran 56 plays which added up to 488 yards. On the day, the Golden Gophers had a total of 21 first downs and they totaled 5 penalties for 37 yards which tells us their heads weren't always in the game. When discussing the defense, Minnesota conceded 27 completions on 49 attempts totaling 291 yards, and a completion percentage of 55.1%. Against the run, the Golden Gophers conceded 123 yards on 33 carries which gave the opponent an average of 3.7 yards per carry allowed. In the game, they conceded a total of 414 yards and earned 2 takeaways.

Related: Get college football predictions on all of today's games

The Golden Gophers head into this game 4-0. In terms of offensive proficiency, the Golden Gophers have one of the top tier offenses in the country. Minnesota hasn't done much to make teams fear their rushing game by averaging 115.8 yards on the ground per game, putting them 106th in D-1. As a team, they have a total of 463 yards rushing through 4 contests, so they'll need to look to improve on these numbers if they want to compete with the better teams in the nation. The Golden Gophers average 389.5 yards per game overall which has them at 80th in Division 1 and 11th in the Big Ten Conference. The Golden Gophers are allowing 29.8 points per game which puts them at 11th in the Big Ten Conference and 92nd in college football. When it comes to points allowed, they have allowed 119 total points. In regard to yards on the ground, they are giving up 119.3 yards per contest ranking them 39th in college football and 8th in the Big Ten. This year, they have allowed a total of 477 yards on the ground and 7.2 rushing touchdowns. Their passing defense is one of the mediocre units in Division 1. They are giving up 211.8 passing yards per contest. For yards through the air allowed per game, the Golden Gophers are ranked 10th in the conference.

Who will win tonight's Fighting Illini/Golden Gophers NCAA football game against the spread?

Guy's Pick: Take the Golden Gophers -13.5

Get $60 worth of FREE premium member picks. No Obligation. No Salesman. No Credit Card. Fast Sign up with Instant Access Click Here

Read more articles by Guy Bruhn