Hawaii at Nevada Expert College Football Picks Against the Spread 9/28/2019

Saturday, September 28, 2019

MacKay Stadium

Cole McDonald and the Hawaii Warriors head to MacKay Stadium on Saturday where they'll take on the Nevada Wolf Pack. Hawaii opens this contest as 1.5-point underdogs. The Warriors are 2-2-0 ATS and 2-2-0 when betting on the total. The Wolf Pack are 3-1-0 when wagering on the over/under and 2-2-0 against the spread.

Key Hawaii Warriors Injuries

09/14/19 RB Dayton Furuta Ankle is out indefinitely
08/20/19 WR Kumoku Noa Undisclosed is out indefinitely

Key Nevada Wolf Pack Injuries

08/13/19 RB Devonte Lee Knee is out indefinitely
08/04/19 QB Cristian Solano Hand is out indefinitely

In their last game, the Hawaii Warriors went up against the Central Arkansas Bears and ended up getting the win by a score of 35-16. Running the show from under center for the Warriors was Cole McDonald who went 25/32 with 300 yards passing and threw 4 touchdowns. He gave away 1 pick in the game. Miles Reed led the team on the ground for that game. He tore off a long run of 21 yards but wasn't able to convert a rushing touchdown. He scurried for 60 yards by way of 10 carries which means he ran for an average of 6.0 yards per carry. Jared Smart was the leader in receiving yardage with a tally of 121 yards on 8 receptions. He averaged 15.1 yards per catch for that game. The Hawaii Warriors ran the ball a total of 22 times and racked up a total of 117 yards earning them an average of 5.3 yards per attempt. For the game, the Warriors got 23 1st downs and they totaled 7 penalties for 75 yards which tells us that they had an average outing in terms of discipline. In the game, they ran 54 plays which added up to 417 yards. On the defensive side of the ball, Hawaii allowed 29 completions on 52 throws for a total of 189 yards, and a completion percentage of 55.8%. On the ground, the Warriors allowed 146 yards on 23 attempts which gave the opponent an average of 6.3 yards per carry allowed. For this contest, they allowed 335 yards and earned 1 turnover.

The Warriors come into this matchup with a record of 2-1 this season. They are one of top scoring teams in the nation with an average of 32.8 points per game, which has them at 54th in the nation. As a unit, they are averaging 91.8 yards on the ground per game which is 11th in the MWC. For total yardage, they sit in 3rd in the Mountain West and 67th in the nation with 1,478 yards. The Warriors have one of the worst defenses in the nation, giving up 33.5 points per contest ranking them 9th in the MWC. When it comes to yards through the air, the Warriors have allowed 1,111 yards. Teams are completing 57.1% of the throws they are attempting against them and averaging 8.1 yards per attempt. In discussing yards on the ground, Hawaii is giving up 158.3 yards per contest ranking them 10th in the MWC and 82nd in college football. They are allowing teams to run for an average of 6 yards per rush which has them at 12th in the conference and 126th in D-1 overall. In total, they have conceded 633 yards rushing through 4 games.

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In their last outing, the Nevada Wolf Pack played the UTEP Miners and earned the win by a score of 37-21. Leading the way at QB for the Wolf Pack was Cristian Solano who went 13/19 with 182 yards passing and completed 2 touchdowns. He walked away with 1 interception on the day. Cristian Solano paced the team on the ground for that game. He broke a long run for 47 yards but he wasn't able to run one in for a touchdown. He rushed for a total of 100 yards via 10 carries which meant he averaged 10.0 yards per carry. Elijah Cooks led the team in receiving yardage by racking up 82 yards on 4 receptions. He averaged 20.5 yards per catch for that game. The Nevada Wolf Pack ended up running the ball 38 times and racked up 200 yards which gave them an average of 5.3 yards per run. For the contest, the Wolf Pack earned a total of 19 first downs and they totaled 4 infractions for 28 yards which is telling of how their week of practice went. On the day, they totaled 59 plays which added up to 403 yards. On the defensive side of the ball, Nevada allowed 10 catches on 17 tries for a total of 116 yards, and a completion percentage of 58.8%. Against the run, the Wolf Pack allowed 162 yards on 47 attempts which gave the opponent an average of 3.4 yards per attempt allowed. Overall, they allowed a total of 278 yards and forced 3 takeaways.

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The Wolf Pack come into this matchup with a record of 3-1. In terms of offensive proficiency, the Wolf Pack have one of the middle tier offenses in Division 1. Nevada needs to do more to make teams respect their running game by averaging 136.5 rushing yards per contest, putting them 87th in college football. As a unit, they have a total of 546 rushing yards through 4 contests, so they are going to want to make some changes to the ground game if they want to make teams respect them. The Wolf Pack average 363.3 yards per contest overall ranking them 94th in Division 1 and 9th in the conference. The Wolf Pack are allowing 35.5 points per game which puts them at 10th in the Mountain West and 113th in college football. Their passing defense is one of the middle of the road units in college football. They are allowing 251 passing yards per game. For yards through the air allowed per game, the Wolf Pack are currently ranked 9th in the Mountain West. In terms of points allowed, they have given up 142 points in total. In discussing yards rushing, they are giving up 138.5 yards per game ranking them 61st in the country and 7th in the Mountain West. For the 2019 season, they have allowed 554 yards on the ground and 6 rushing touchdowns.

Who will win tonight's Warriors/Wolf Pack college football game against the spread?

Guy's Pick: Take the Warriors +1.5

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