Fresno State at New Mexico State NCAA Football Picks 9/28/2019

Saturday, September 28, 2019

Aggie Memorial Stadium

Jorge Reyna and the Fresno State Bulldogs head to Aggie Memorial Stadium on Saturday where they'll take on the New Mexico State Aggies. Fresno State opens this game as 17.5-point favorites. The Bulldogs are 1-1-1 ATS and 2-1-0 when betting on the total. The Aggies are 2-2-0 when wagering on the over/under and 2-2-0 against the spread.

Key Fresno State Bulldogs Injuries

08/31/19 RB Romello Harris Knee is out indefinitely
08/13/19 RB Jordan Mims Foot is out for season

Key New Mexico State Aggies Injuries

09/18/19 WR Drew Dan Wrist is out for season

In the last game they played, the Fresno State Bulldogs went up against the Sacramento State Hornets and notched a win by a score of 34-20. Josh Hokit paced the team on the ground during the game. He had a long run of 14 yards and he tallied 2 TD's for the game. He rushed for 72 yards on 12 carries which means he ran for an average of 6.0 yards per run. Keric Wheatfall was the leader in receiving yardage by racking up 98 yards on 3 receptions. He averaged 32.7 yards per reception during the game. Leading the way at QB for the Bulldogs was Jorge Reyna who went 26/39 with 312 yards passing and added 2 touchdowns. He finished this contest without throwing a pick. The Fresno State Bulldogs ended up running the ball 41 times and added 159 yards which had them averaging 3.9 yards per attempt. For the game, the Bulldogs had a total of 30 first downs and they had 7 penalties for 61 yards which tells us that they had an average outing in terms of discipline. On the day, they totaled 81 plays for a total of 471 yards. In terms of defense, Fresno State allowed 22 catches on 41 attempts for a total of 233 yards, and a completion percentage of 53.7%. In the running game, the Bulldogs allowed 12 yards on 17 runs allowing their opponent an average of 0.7 yards per carry allowed. In the game, they gave up 245 yards and earned 1 turnover.

The Bulldogs head into this game 1-2 in 2019. For total yards, they rank 12th in the conference and 129th in D-1 with 807 yards. They are one of the most potent offenses in the country averaging 30.7 points per game, which has them at 66th in D-1. As a unit, they are averaging 87.7 yards on the ground per contest which is 12th in the MWC. The Bulldogs have one of the average defenses in the nation, allowing 29.7 points per game ranking them 7th in the Mountain West. In regard to yards on the ground, Fresno State is giving up 107 yards per contest which has them at 5th in the MWC and 37th in Division 1. Opposing teams are running for an average of 3.6 yards per carry putting them 5th in the MWC and 49th in college football overall. In total, they have conceded 321 rushing yards through 3 contests. When it comes to passing yards, the Bulldogs have allowed 544 yards. Opponents are completing 72.3% of the passes they throw against them and averaging 7.8 yards per attempt.

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In their last outing, the New Mexico State Aggies went up against the New Mexico Lobos and lost 55-52. Jason Huntley led the team in rushing during the game. He tore off a long run of 31 yards and he notched 1 TD for the game. He scurried for 114 yards via 12 carries which meant he averaged 9.5 yards per carry. Naveon Mitchell was the receiving yardage leader with a tally of 105 yards on 4 receptions. He averaged 26.3 yards per catch during the game. Leading the way at QB for the Aggies was Josh Adkins who went 30/47 with 335 yards through the air and threw 3 touchdowns. He walked away with 1 pick during the game. The New Mexico State Aggies ran the football 34 times and earned a total of 154 yards which had them averaging 4.5 yards per carry. In all, they finished with a total of 81 plays for 489 yards. For the contest, the Aggies had a total of 29 1st downs and they had 7 penalties for 56 yards which tells us their heads weren't always in the game. On the defensive side of the ball, New Mexico State conceded 16 catches on 28 attempts for a total of 355 yards, and a completion percentage of 57.1%. For this contest, they allowed 598 yards and forced 1 takeaway. On the ground, the Aggies conceded 243 yards on 51 attempts which gave them an average of 4.8 yards per run allowed.

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The Aggies come into this matchup with a record of 0-4. In discussing the offensive production, the Aggies leave a lot to be desired in terms of scoring in the nation. New Mexico State is having a year to forget in the ground game by averaging 95.3 yards on the ground per game, which has them at 120th in the country. As a team, they have a total of 381 yards rushing through 4 games, so they'll need to look to improve on these numbers if they want to compete with the better teams in the nation. The Aggies average 349.3 yards per contest overall ranking them 103rd in college football and 7th in the Sun Belt. The Aggies are giving up 51.5 points per game ranking them 11th in the Sun Belt and 129th in Division 1. In discussing points allowed, they have given up 206 points in total. In discussing yards rushing, they are giving up 240.8 yards per game ranking them 125th in college football and 10th in the Sun Belt. In 2019, they have given up 963 yards on the ground and 11.2 rushing touchdowns. Their passing defense is one of the least effective units in the nation. They are allowing 313.3 passing yards per contest. For passing yards allowed per game, the Aggies sit in 10th in the Sun Belt Conference.

Who will win tonight's Bulldogs/Aggies college football game against the spread?

Josh's Pick: Take the Bulldogs -17.5

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