East Carolina vs SMU NCAA Football Picks Against the Spread 11/9/2019

Saturday, November 9, 2019

Gerald J. Ford Stadium

Holton Ahlers and the East Carolina Pirates are headed to Gerald J. Ford Stadium on Saturday where they'll meet the SMU Mustangs. East Carolina opens this game as 23.5-point dogs. The Pirates are 5-4-0 ATS and 3-6-0 when betting on the total. The Mustangs are 8-1-0 when wagering on the over/under and 6-3-0 against the spread.

The last time they took the field, the East Carolina Pirates faced the Cincinnati Bearcats and were beaten 46-43. Running the show from under center for the Pirates was Holton Ahlers who went 32/52 with 535 yards passing and added 4 TD's. He walked away with 1 interception on the day. Trace Christian paced the team on the ground during the game. He broke a long run for 12 yards but he wasn't able to run one in for a touchdown. He ran for 43 yards on 9 carries which meant he was running for 4.8 yards per run. C.J. Johnson led the team in receiving yardage by earning 283 yards on 12 catches. He notched an average of 23.6 yards per reception during the game. The Pirates ended up rushing 35 times and earned 103 yards which earned them an average of 2.9 yards per attempt. For the game, they totaled 87 plays for 638 yards. Overall, the Pirates racked up a total of 35 1st downs and they totaled 8 penalties for 65 yards which shows us how undisciplined this team can be. When discussing the defense, East Carolina conceded 12 catches on 24 tries totaling 161 yards, and a completion percentage of 50.0%. On the day, they conceded a total of 487 yards and earned 2 takeaways. Against the run, the Pirates conceded 326 yards on 39 carries which is an average of 8.4 yards per rushing attempt allowed.

The Pirates come into this matchup with a record of 3-6 this season. For total yards, they are currently ranked 8th in the conference and 53rd in college football with 3,626 yards. In terms of scoring, they are one of the marginal teams in the country averaging 23.9 points per game, putting them 99th in college football. As a unit, they have an average of 148.9 yards on the ground per game which is 9th in the AAC. The Pirates have one of the most lackluster defenses in the country, giving up 30.2 points per contest ranking them 8th in the American Athletic Conference. When it comes to yards through the air, the Pirates have allowed 2,286 yards. Opponents are completing 60.5% of the passes they throw against them and averaging 7.7 yards per attempt. When it comes to rushing yards, East Carolina is giving up 207.1 yards per contest ranking them 11th in the conference and 114th in the country. They are allowing teams to run for an average of 4.9 yards per carry which has them at 9th in the conference and 99th in the nation overall. In total, they have conceded 1,864 rushing yards through 9 contests.

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The last time they took the field, the SMU Mustangs played the Memphis Tigers and took the defeat by a score of 54-48. Ke'Mon Freeman led the team on the ground during the game. He broke a long run for 68 yards and he added 2 TD's for the game. He racked up a total of 74 yards via 6 carries which meant he averaged 12.3 yards per carry. James Proche was the receiving yardage leader by earning 149 yards on 13 catches. He had an average of 11.5 yards per reception during the game. Running the show from under center for the Mustangs was Shane Buechele who went 34/54 with 456 yards passing and threw 3 TD's. He finished the game without throwing an interception. The Mustangs ran the ball 24 times and earned a total of 97 yards which earned them an average of 4.0 yards per carry. In the game, the Mustangs totaled 27 first downs and they had 11 penalties for 108 yards which shows us how undisciplined this team can be. For the game, they ran 79 plays for a total of 553 yards. When discussing the defense, SMU allowed 19 catches on 33 throws for a total of 350 yards, and a completion percentage of 57.6%. For the game, they conceded 514 yards but didn't force any takeaways. Against the run, the Mustangs allowed 164 yards on 39 attempts which is an average of 4.2 yards per rushing attempt allowed.

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The Mustangs head into this game 8-1. In discussing the offensive production, the Mustangs have one of the most prolific offenses in D-1. SMU has made teams respect their running game by averaging 191 rushing yards per contest, which has them at 41st in the country. As a team, they have a total of 1,719 yards rushing through 9 games, so they'll look to the run game to try to keep the opponents off balance so they'll have open receivers. The Mustangs average 509.6 yards per contest overall ranking them 8th in the country and 2nd in the American Athletic Conference. The Mustangs are conceding 30.7 points per game which puts them at 9th in the conference and 92nd in Division 1. When it comes to points allowed, they have allowed 276 points in total. When talking about yards rushing, they are allowing 121.9 yards per contest which puts them at 28th in Division 1 and 2nd in the conference. For this season, they have allowed 1,097 yards rushing and 8.1 rushing touchdowns. Their pass defense is one of the middle of the road groups in Division 1. They are allowing 279.7 passing yards per game. For passing yards allowed per game, the Mustangs are ranked 11th in the conference.

Who will win tonight's Pirates/Mustangs college football game against the spread?

Guy's Pick: Take the Mustangs -23.5

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