Arkansas State at Troy NCAA Football Point Spread Picks 9/28/2019

Saturday, September 28, 2019

Veterans Memorial Stadium

Logan Bonner and the Arkansas State Red Wolves go to Veterans Memorial Stadium on Saturday where they'll meet the Troy Trojans. Arkansas State opens this game as 6.5-point dogs. The Red Wolves are 1-3-0 ATS and 2-2-0 when betting on the total. The Trojans are 2-1-0 when wagering on the over/under and 1-2-0 against the spread.

Key Arkansas State Red Wolves Injuries

09/19/19 CB Jerry Jacobs Undisclosed is out for season

Key Troy Trojans Injuries

09/17/19 WR Demontrez Brown Achilles is out for season
09/16/19 RB B.J. Smith Knee is out for season

In their last outing, the Arkansas State Red Wolves played the Southern Illinois Salukis and earned the victory by a score of 41-28. Running the show from under center for the Red Wolves was Logan Bonner who went 17/31 with 320 yards through the air and tossed 4 TD's. He ended the game with no interceptions. Isaiah Azubuike led the team in rushing during the game. He had a long run of 13 yards but he wasn't able to rush for a TD on the day. He rushed for 88 yards by way of 15 carries which meant he was running for 5.9 yards per carry. Omar Bayless led the team in receiving yardage by earning 141 yards on 3 receptions. He averaged 47.0 yards per reception during the game. The Arkansas State Red Wolves ended up running the ball 27 times and racked up a total of 117 yards which gave them an average of 4.3 yards per attempt. Overall, they ran 60 plays for 474 yards. In the game, the Red Wolves earned 22 first downs and they totaled 8 penalties for 67 yards which is telling in terms of discipline. When it comes to their defensive performance, Arkansas State conceded 20 catches on 35 tries totaling 297 yards, and a completion percentage of 57.1%. For this contest, they conceded 526 yards and earned 2 takeaways. In the running game, the Red Wolves conceded 229 yards on 46 attempts which gave them an average of 5.0 yards per carry allowed.

The Red Wolves step onto the field holding a record of 2-2 for 2019. For total yardage, they sit in 3rd in the Sun Belt Conference and 49th in the nation with 1,606 yards. They are in the middle of the pack in regard to scoring in the nation with an average of 28.5 points per game, ranking them 79th in the nation. As a team, they are averaging 116 yards on the ground per contest which is 9th in the Sun Belt. The Red Wolves have one of the worst defenses in the nation, giving up 34.3 points per contest ranking them 6th in the Sun Belt. In regard to rushing yards, Arkansas State is giving up 208.3 yards per game putting them 9th in the Sun Belt and 115th in the nation. They are allowing teams to run for an average of 5 yards per carry ranking them 7th in the conference and 111th in the country overall. Overall, they have allowed 833 rushing yards through 4 contests. When it comes to yards through the air, the Red Wolves have conceded 1,142 yards. Opponents are completing 60.8% of the throws they are attempting against them and averaging 8.1 yards per attempt.

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In their last contest, the Troy Trojans played the Akron Zips and won by a score of 35-7. Running the show from under center for the Trojans was Kaleb Barker who went 27/37 with 214 yards passing and tossed 3 TD's. He tossed 1 pick during the game. DK Billingsley led the team on the ground for the game. He tore off a long run of 16 yards and he notched 1 touchdown for the game. He ran for 100 yards by way of 22 carries which meant he averaged 4.5 yards per tote. Luke Whittemore was the receiving yardage leader by earning 64 yards on 7 catches. He earned an average of 9.1 yards per catch for the game. The Troy Trojans ended up running the ball 56 times and racked up a total of 270 yards giving them an average of 4.8 yards per carry. In the game, the Trojans earned a total of 32 1st downs and they totaled 3 infractions for 24 yards which is telling of the great week of practice this squad had. On the day, they totaled 95 plays for a total of 485 yards. When discussing the defense, Troy gave up 16 catches on 32 throws for a total of 203 yards, and a completion percentage of 50.0%. In the game, they conceded a total of 242 yards and earned 2 takeaways. Against the run, the Trojans gave up 39 yards on 18 tries which gave them an average of 2.2 yards per carry allowed.

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The Trojans head into this game 2-1. In terms of offensive proficiency, the Trojans have one of the most prolific offenses in the country. Troy is making teams consider moving more up into the box by averaging 179.7 yards on the ground per contest, ranking them 52nd in D-1. As a unit, they have compiled a total of 539 rushing yards through 3 contests, so they'll look to the run game to try to keep the opponents off balance so they'll have open receivers. The Trojans average 513.3 yards per contest overall ranking them 15th in the country and 2nd in the Sun Belt Conference. The Trojans are allowing 22.7 points per game ranking them 3rd in the Sun Belt and 50th in college football. When it comes to points given up, they have allowed 68 points in total. When it comes to rushing yards, they are conceding 67 yards per game ranking them 8th in college football and 1st in the Sun Belt Conference. This season, they have given up 201 yards rushing and 2.1 rushing touchdowns. Their passing defense is one of the mediocre units in college football. They are allowing 270 passing yards per game. For passing yards allowed per game, the Trojans sit in 7th in the Sun Belt Conference.

Who will win tonight's Red Wolves/Trojans college football game against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take the Red Wolves +6.5

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