Arkansas State vs South Alabama Expert College Football Picks Against the Spread 11/30/2019

Game: Arkansas State Red Wolves vs South Alabama Jaguars

Date: Saturday, November 30, 2019

Week 14

Location: Ladd-Peebles Stadium in Mobile, AL

TV: ESPN+

Odds/Point Spread: South Alabama +13.5

Total/Over-Under: 53

Cephus Johnson and the South Alabama Jaguars play the Arkansas State Red Wolves at Ladd-Peebles Stadium on Saturday, November 30, 2019. The odds on this matchup have Arkansas State as 13.5-point favorites. The Red Wolves are 5-6-0 ATS and 6-5-0 when betting on the total. The Jaguars are 3-8-0 when wagering on the over/under and 6-5-0 against the spread.

In their last outing, the Arkansas State Red Wolves went up against the Georgia Southern Eagles and earned the victory by a score of 38-33. Jamal Jones paced the team in rushing during the game. He had a long run of 17 yards but he never crossed the endzone by way of the rush. He ran for 74 yards by way of 10 carries which meant he was running for 7.4 yards per tote. Jonathan Adams Jr. led the team in receiving yardage with a total of 158 yards on 7 catches. He earned an average of 22.6 yards per catch during the game. Leading the way at QB for the Red Wolves was Layne Hatcher who went 19/24 with 354 yards passing and tossed 4 TD's. He finished the game without throwing an interception. The Red Wolves ran the ball a total of 32 times and totaled 91 yards which had them averaging 2.8 yards per rushing attempt. On the day, the Red Wolves racked up 21 1st downs and they had 7 infractions for 80 yards which is telling of how their week of practice went. In the game, they totaled 56 plays which gave them a total of 445 yards. In terms of defense, Arkansas State gave up 15 catches on 26 attempts totaling 182 yards, and a completion percentage of 57.7%. In the game, they conceded a total of 474 yards and earned 1 takeaway. In the running game, the Red Wolves gave up 292 yards on 50 attempts which means they had an average of 5.8 yards per run allowed.

The Red Wolves head into this game 7-4 for the 2019 season. For total yards, they sit in 5th in the Sun Belt and 46th in the country with 4,749 yards. They are one of top scoring teams in the nation with an average of 34 points per game, ranking them 31st in the country. As a unit, they are averaging 129.7 yards on the ground per contest which is 10th in the Sun Belt. The Red Wolves have one of the worst defenses in the nation, giving up 34.9 points per contest ranking them 8th in the Sun Belt. When talking about rushing yards, Arkansas State is giving up 224.7 yards per contest which has them at 9th in the Sun Belt Conference and 124th in college football. Opposing teams are running for an average of 5.2 yards per rush ranking them 8th in the conference and 117th in the country overall. Overall, they have allowed 2,472 yards rushing through 11 contests. When it comes to passing yards, the Red Wolves have conceded 3,322 yards. Teams are completing 61% of the throws they are attempting against them and averaging 7.2 yards per attempt.

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In their last game, the South Alabama Jaguars played the Georgia State Panthers and took the loss by a score of 28-15. Taking the lead at quarterback for the Jaguars was Desmond Trotter who went 12/25 with 218 yards through the air and completed 2 TD's. He gave away 1 interception on the day. Tra Minter led the team on the ground for the game. He had a long run of 12 yards but wasn't able to convert a rushing touchdown. He rushed for a total of 70 yards on 18 carries which meant he was running for 3.9 yards per tote. Jalen Tolbert led the team in receiving yardage with a tally of 74 yards on 2 catches. He notched an average of 37.0 yards per catch for the game. The Jaguars ran the ball a total of 39 times and generated 108 yards which gave them an average of 2.8 yards per carry. In all, they ran 64 plays which added up to 326 yards. In the game, the Jaguars got 14 first downs and they totaled 4 penalties for 44 yards which tells us their heads weren't always in the game. When discussing the defense, South Alabama allowed 21 catches on 27 attempts totaling 208 yards, and a completion percentage of 77.8%. Against the run, the Jaguars allowed 176 yards on 48 runs which gave them an average of 3.7 yards per rushing attempt allowed. For this contest, they gave up 384 yards and earned 1 takeaway.

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The Jaguars come into this game with a record of 1-10. South Alabama is making teams consider moving more up into the box by averaging 167.4 rushing yards per contest, ranking them 61st in the nation. As a team, they have compiled a total of 1,841 rushing yards through 11 contests, so they will want to continue to try to improve on the run game so opponents will have to respect all facets of the game. The Jaguars average 315.3 yards per game overall ranking them 121st in the country and 11th in the conference. The Jaguars are giving up 30.7 points per game which puts them at 4th in the Sun Belt Conference and 91st in Division 1. When talking about points given up, they have allowed 338 total points. When it comes to rushing yards, they are giving up 201.2 yards per game ranking them 110th in the country and 6th in the conference. For this year, they have given up a total of 2,213 rushing yards and 16.5 rushing TDs. Their pass defense is one of the mediocre units in college football. They are conceding 205.2 passing yards per game. For passing yards allowed per game, the Jaguars currently sit at 4th in the conference.

Who will win tonight's Red Wolves/Jaguars college football game against the spread?

Guy's Pick: Take the Red Wolves -13.5

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