Air Force at Navy Expert College Football Picks Against the Spread 10/5/2019

Saturday, October 5, 2019

Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium

Malcolm Perry and the Navy Midshipmen play the Air Force Falcons at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium on Saturday, October 5, 2019. The Falcons are 2-1-0 ATS and 1-2-0 when betting on the total. The Midshipmen are 0-2-0 when wagering on the over/under and 2-0-0 against the spread.

Key Air Force Falcons Injuries

09/22/19 QB Donald Hammond III Ankle injured last game, is probable Friday vs San Jose State

Key Navy Midshipmen Injuries

09/29/19 SB Keoni-Kordell Mahekau Undisclosed left last game, is questionable Saturday vs Air Force
09/29/19 QB Malcolm Perry Shoulder left last game, is questionable Saturday vs Air Force
09/29/19 FB Nelson Smith Head left last game, is questionable Saturday vs Air Force

The last time they took the field, the Air Force Falcons faced the San Jose State Spartans and notched a win by a score of 41-24. Taking the lead at quarterback for the Falcons was Donald Hammond III who went 5/9 with 131 yards passing and tossed 1 TD. He ended the game with no interceptions. Taven Birdow paced the team in rushing for that game. He broke a long run for 17 yards and he added 2 TD's during the game. He racked up a total of 124 yards via 25 carries which meant he averaged 5.0 yards per carry. Geraud Sanders was the leader in receiving yardage by racking up 108 yards on 3 receptions. He had an average of 36.0 yards per reception for that game. The Air Force Falcons ran the ball 69 times and added 382 yards which gave them an average of 5.5 yards per rushing attempt. For the game, the Falcons totaled 24 1st downs and they totaled 8 infractions for 76 yards which shows us that this team didn't have their heads in this game. Overall, they finished with a total of 79 plays which added up to 513 yards. On the defensive side of the ball, Air Force gave up 24 completions on 42 throws totaling 280 yards, and a completion percentage of 57.1%. On the day, they gave up 378 yards but went the whole game without forcing a turnover. Against the run, the Falcons gave up 98 yards on 31 attempts giving the other team an average of 3.2 yards per run allowed.

The Falcons head into this matchup 3-1 this year. They are one of top scoring teams in the nation averaging 34.5 points per contest, ranking them 41st in the country. As a team, they are averaging 334 yards on the ground per contest which is 1st in the MWC. For total yardage, they sit in 6th in the MWC and 67th in the country with 1,776 yards. The Falcons have one of the top tier defenses in D-1, allowing 21 points per contest which has them at 4th in the Mountain West. When it comes to passing yards, the Falcons have allowed 440 yards. Teams are completing 61.8% of the passes they throw against them and averaging 6.4 yards per attempt. In terms of yards on the ground, Air Force is giving up 93.3 yards per game putting them 4th in the Mountain West and 20th in D-1. They are allowing teams to run for an average of 3 yards per carry putting them 4th in the MWC and 25th in Division 1 overall. Overall, they have allowed 373 yards rushing through 4 games.

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In their last game, the Navy Midshipmen played the Memphis Tigers and took the defeat by a score of 35-23. Running the show from under center for the Midshipmen was Malcolm Perry who went 6/10 with 82 yards through the air and tossed 1 TD. He ended the game without an interception. Keoni-Kordell Makekau paced the team on the ground for that contest. His longest run of the day went for 41 yards but wasn't able to convert a rushing touchdown. He racked up a total of 101 yards by way of 8 carries which meant he averaged 12.6 yards per run. Ryan Mitchell was the receiving yardage leader with a tally of 52 yards on 2 receptions. He averaged 26.0 yards per reception for that contest. The Navy Midshipmen rushed the ball a total of 66 times and racked up a total of 291 yards earning them an average of 4.4 yards per carry. In all, they totaled 79 plays which added up to 373 yards. On the day, the Midshipmen racked up a total of 20 first downs and they totaled 6 penalties for 55 yards which is telling of how their week of practice went. In terms of defense, Navy gave up 14 completions on 18 attempts totaling 196 yards, and a completion percentage of 77.8%. For the game, they gave up 301 yards and forced 1 takeaway. On the ground, the Midshipmen gave up 105 yards on 25 attempts which gave them an average of 4.2 yards per carry allowed.

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The Midshipmen come into this game with a record of 2-1. Navy has made teams game plan around their running game by averaging 344.7 rushing yards per game, which has them at 1st in the country. As a unit, they have a total of 1,034 yards rushing through 3 contests, so they'll look to continue their dominance on the ground to grind out wins. The Midshipmen average 457.3 yards per contest overall putting them 30th in D-1 and 3rd in the American Athletic Conference. The Midshipmen are conceding 17.3 points per contest which puts them at 3rd in the conference and 24th in the nation. Their passing defense is one of the most dominate groups in college football. They are allowing 167 passing yards per contest. For yards through the air allowed per game, the Midshipmen currently sit at 4th in the AAC. When talking about points allowed, they have allowed 52 points in total. In terms of yards on the ground, they are giving up 84.7 yards per contest which puts them at 17th in college football and 1st in the conference. In 2019, they have conceded 254 yards rushing and 3 rushing TDs.

Who will win tonight's Falcons/Midshipmen college football game against the spread?

Guy's Pick: Take the Falcons

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