2018 Wyoming Cowboys Season Win Total Picks and Predictions for NCAA Football

2017 Record: 8-5

2018 Las Vegas Season Win Total: 6.5*

2018 Season Win Total Picks NCAA Football: 'Under'

The Cowboys are being written off as a contender in the Mountain West this year thanks to the loss of first-round NFL pick Josh Allen. Call me crazy, but I actually think that this year's Wyoming team can be even better despite the loss of their big-armed quarterback.

Honestly, Allen was trash last year. He completed just 56.3 percent of his passes and threw for just 177 yards per game, No. 103 in the country. Wyoming was No. 104 in scoring and No. 125 in total offense with Allen at the controls. So there's really nowhere to go but up.

Replacing Allen will not be easy with the guys on the roster. Wyoming has a second-year player and a first-year player competing for the starting gig. But no matter who wins the job, it won't be all that difficult to match last year's production.

The strength of this team is on defense. They allowed just 17.5 points per game - nearly cutting in half their points allowed in 2016 (34.1). It was a remarkable turnaround, and Wyoming has nine starters back on that side of the ball. That includes their top six tacklers and 12 of their top 15 tacklers.

Wyoming has seven three-year starters on defense, making it one of the most experienced units in the country. And if Carl Granderson and Youhanna Ghaifan can increase their sack total even further (16 combined last year) then this group could match last year's stellar numbers.

The Cowboys open on the road against New Mexico State. They really need to get that win if they want to beat this season win total. The Cowboys get a rare home game against a Power 5 opponent when rebuilding Washington State comes to Laramie in Week 2.

Wyoming has the benefit of two bye weeks in conference play. They will have two weeks to prepare for a conference opening home game versus Boise State. And they also have two weeks to prep for Air Force's option attack in a November home game. The Cowboys also have winnable road games at Hawaii and at New Mexico. And if you throw in an expected win at home against San Jose State then Wyoming will be bumping up against this win total.

It will take an upset to get this wager to cash. A home win over Washington State, Boise State or Utah State would suffice. So would a road win at Fresno State or at Colorado State. Wyoming is just 18-40 on the road the last 10 years. So expecting them to get four road wins (to go with home wins over Wofford, San Jose State and Air Force) is a taller task than it seems.

I think Wyoming will be a solid team against the spread again this year. They are 19-8 ATS over the last two seasons and have very quietly become a strong underdog play (11-4 ATS). I look for that to continue. But I have them coming up just short of seven wins.

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