2018 Vanderbilt Commodores Season Win Total Picks and Predictions for NCAA Football

2017 Record: 5-7

2018 Las Vegas Season Win Total: 4.5

2018 Season Win Total Picks NCAA Football: 'Push'

Every now and again Vanderbilt is able to jump up and bite someone and prove that they do belong in the SEC. All things considered, the Commodores have done pretty well for themselves. Because, despite being the weakest program in the league, they've managed to keep from becoming total fodder that just gets run through and embarrassed every week.

Last year Vanderbilt clawed their way to five wins. That included two wins of personal significance, knocking off a ranked Kansas State team at home in September and closing the year with a blowout win over rival Tennessee in Knoxville. But beyond that, Vandy really wasn't all that competitive in league play. That Vols win was their only SEC victory. And their seven losses were by an average of 26.3 points per game.

That's a lot of ground to make up. And I don't think Vanderbilt is going to make it up this year. Derek Mason is just 18-31 in his four seasons. And he's just 6-26 in league games.

Kyle Shurmur is back for his fourth year as a starter. He was efficient last year, throwing 26 touchdowns to just 10 interceptions. But bell cow running back Ralph Webb has moved on and isn't there for Shurmur and the offense to lean on. Vandy does have five starters back on the offensive line and some solid depth. But besides Webb, their leading rusher, they are also down their top two receivers.

The biggest thing that the defense has going for it is experience. They have eight seniors in the starting lineup. That includes two returning starters in a secondary that was No. 28 in the nation in pass defense. But they were also No. 100 in rush defense, so they need to show some flex if they want to improve this year.

There are not a lot of easy wins on the slate for Vandy. Even the season opener against upstart Middle Tennessee will be tough since that game means more to MTSU than to the Commodores. A road trip to Notre Dame is another potential stumbling block before league play begins. Vandy also has a stretch where they play four of five SEC games on the road. (I'd love to see Alabama have a schedule like that. Just once.)

I think that Mason is going to bottom out this year. If they sweep their nonconference home games (MTSU, Nevada, Tennessee State) then they would still need to win two SEC games to beat this number. I don't see where those wins are going to come from. This one is going to be close. But I see Vanderbilt staying 'under'.

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