2018 TCU Horned Frogs Season Win Total Picks and Predictions for NCAA Football

2017 Record: 11-3

2018 Las Vegas Season Win Total: 7.5

2018 Season Win Total Picks NCAA Football: 'Over'

I feel like this year's TCU Horned Frogs are going to be one of the more volatile teams to bet on or against in college football. This team is scary. Not scary good or scary bad. But TCU seems like the type of team that is going to lose two or three games that they shouldn't and win one or two games that they shouldn't, with the public getting burned by them every time.

TCU is coming off another highly-successful season. They won 10 games in the regular season, played in their first Big 12 title game, and scored a bowl win over Stanford. Last season marked the third time in the last four years that Gary Patterson's charges won at least 11 games, and TCU is an outstanding 40-13 straight up over that span.

However, the Horned Frogs lost a load of talent and experience from last year's squad. And while last season was a banner year, it was just two short falls ago that they stumbled to an uninspired 6-7 campaign that saw them go just 3-10 against the spread.

All eyes will be on the quarterback position this fall. Sophomore Shawn Robinson is the highest-rated quarterback recruit in TCU history. He will take over from veteran Kenny Hill, who continued a line of solid TCU quarterbacks that has stretched from Andy Dalton and Casey Paschall through Trevone Boykin and Hill.

Robinson played in six games last year, including a start at Texas Tech late in the season. Robinson was a little shaky. But he threw for three touchdowns and guided the Horned Frogs to that road win, 27-3. He should be able to fend off backup Justin Rogers. But Robinson will need to take a massive step forward if he wants to match the 33.6 points per game of production that last year's attack mustered.

While Robinson gets his feet wet, the TCU defense should once again lead the way. The Horned Frogs finished No. 15 in the country last year in scoring defense and were in the Top 20 nationally in both total defense (No. 19) and rushing defense (No. 5). Six starters are back from that group, including three-year starters Ty Summers and Niko Small.

A date with Ohio Sate in Arlington on Sept. 15 is the highlight of the nonconference schedule. And TCU has to come right back the following week and go to Austin to face Texas in the Big 12 opener. That's a brutal seven days right there, and two losses could really daze this team heading into the heart of conference play.

The good news is that TCU has to leave the state of Texas only twice he entire season. And one of those games is a matchup at Kansas that should be a blowout.

Much like Oklahoma State, this season win total seems really low to me. But as you dig into the schedule it becomes clearer that eight wins are certainly not assured. However, I think that TCU will get there. Even if they lose their four toughest games (Ohio State, at Texas, Oklahoma, at West Virginia), it would still take an upset for them to fail to clear this bar. They host both Kansas State and Oklahoma State, two teams that I feel are most comparable in terms of talent. They also host Iowa State in a revenge game from last year.

As long as Patterson's guys don't throw up on themselves against someone like Texas Tech or flop on the road to weak sisters like Kansas or Baylor then this number seems beatable. And that regular-season finale game against Oklahoma State should be the decisive game for both teams against their Vegas season win totals. I'd play 'over', albeit hesitantly.

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