2018 South Florida Bulls Season Win Total Picks and Predictions for NCAA Football

2017 Record: 10-2

2018 Las Vegas Season Win Total: 8.0*

2018 Season Win Total Picks NCAA Football: 'Under'

I'm glad that Charlie Strong landed on his feet in South Florida. Strong is a really solid coach that's been underappreciated at both Louisville and Texas. And now he can start laying the foundation for his program in Tampa while trying to build on last year's 10-win campaign.

Last fall South Florida had dreams of going undefeated and crashing the college playoff. They came tantalizingly close, losing one-score games against Houston and Central Florida. But the core of that team, including hero quarterback Quinton Flowers, is gone. The Bulls are also down their top two running backs, top receiver, two offensive linemen, and top three tacklers.

Strong is a defensive guy. And he shaved more than eight points off USF's points allowed from 2016 to 2017. He'll have to replace a lot of talent in the front seven this year. But Strong knows how to recruit and develop guys on this side of the ball, so I expect the Bulls to be fine here.

The big issue is going to be replacing Flowers under center. He was their leading passer, leading rusher and leading scorer over the past two seasons. The Bulls will have to decide between Alabama/Arizona State transfer Blake Barnett or last year's backup, Brett Kean. And whoever earns the quarterback gig will be working with a host of unproven skill players.

South Florida's schedule gets progressively harder as the season wears on. USF has a layup in the opener against Elon. Then they have their two tough nonconference games, hosting Georgia Tech and then playing at Illinois. The Bulls open league play at home against sagging East Carolina and then have two weeks to prepare for road games at Massachusetts and at Tulsa. A homecoming game versus Connecticut marks the turning point in their slate.

The Bulls have to play three of their last four games on the road, including trips to Houston and Temple. They also close the year at home against rival, and defending champion, Central Florida.

USF needs to stockpile as many wins as they can get early because things will be tough late. And they better at least split with Georgia Tech and Illinois or they will be in trouble. I think South Florida is going to get off to a strong start. But even if they are 5-2 after the Connecticut game I still don't think they will have enough juice to get over this bar.

This looks like a bit of a rebuilding year for South Florida. They still have some top-tier athletes, and the experience that they do have is a bunch of guys that have helped the team win 11 and 10 games the past two seasons. I don't see these guys collapsing or anything like that. But one or two lose losses can add up quickly, and I think that they are some better, more well-rounded clubs in the AAC this year. I have USF pegged at seven wins, and I think they will tuck under.

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