2018 SMU Mustangs Season Win Total Picks and Predictions for NCAA Football

2017 Record: 7-6

2018 Las Vegas Season Win Total: 5.5*

2018 Season Win Total Picks NCAA Football: 'Over'

Chad Morris did a decent job of building up SMU from a laughingstock to a legitimate AAC program. But Morris bolted for Arkansas rather than stick around and continue to grow with the Mustangs.

Despite that, SMU scored another touchdown when they landed journeyman Sonny Dykes. Dykes didn't work out at California. But he did an excellent job at Louisiana Tech prior to that and he should pick right up where Morris left off.

Dykes' version of the Air Raid offense should be an easy adjustment after Morris' pass-first scheme. SMU has a potential star in quarterback Ben Hicks, so that helps. Hicks threw for 3,569 yards and 33 touchdowns last season. And despite losing his top two receivers, I think that Hicks can surpass those numbers this season.

It helps having a two-headed beast at running back with Xavier Jones and Braeden West. They'll be working behind a solid, but not outstanding, offensive line. I think that SMU can match or exceed last year's 37.8 point per game output.

Of course, Dykes is going to have to work some miracles with this defense. Like most teams in the AAC, SMU can put up points in a hurry and give up points just as quickly. They do have eight returning starters and five of their top seven tacklers back. The entire starting secondary returns, and this team has to improve in generating turnovers if they want to compete with the top teams in the league.

SMU has one of the most difficult opening six weeks of any team in the conference. They open on the road against a high-scoring North Texas team that they've beaten three straight years. After that they host TCU on a nationally-televised Friday night game before heading to Ann Arbor to tangle with Michigan. They will try to avoid a letdown the following week against Navy, and two weeks after that they face defending champ Central Florida.

It would be incredible if SMU could go 3-3 through those first six games. I think 2-5 is more likely. The schedule does lighten up after that. They have two weeks to prepare for Tulane's option. Three of the next four after that are at home, even though two of those games are against Houston and Memphis.

I love the hiring of Dykes. And I think the transition from Morris will be really smooth. Having one of the top quarterbacks in the league certainly helps. Even if that schedule doesn't. I'm not entirely sure where the wins are going to come from. But I do think that the Mustangs will get hot at some point and rattle off three or maybe four in a row. I think this wager will come down to a season finale shootout at Tulsa. But a win there should get this team back to a bowl game.

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