2018 SEC Championship Game Picks: Alabama vs. Georgia Odds and Predictions

Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Georgia Bulldogs, Saturday Dec. 1, 10 p.m. ET

The last time these teams met was in the National Championship Game last year when Alabama won by a field goal in overtime, but Georgia salvaged the cover by a mere half point. This game is almost as important in terms of playoff implications, but just doesn't feel as interesting. Alabama is a better team that the last one - certainly at quarterback, anyway. And Georgia, despite losing only once, doesn't feel like a match for last year's team. But if Georgia wins they would again be a playoff team. It's possible that Alabama could lose this game in a tight battle and still make the playoff as well - likely, even - so a rematch is possible in a month or so if Georgia pulls off the upset here. For Alabama, the easiest path is just to win - they'll be the top seed and face a pretty beatable opponent if they do that. But keeping it close is the ultimate goal.

Alabama vs. Georgia Betting Storylines

Alabama has won the last four meetings between these teams. The last was obviously the most significant, and it's a game that Georgia's coaching staff likely still has nightmares about. Things were going well until Tua Tagovailoa jumped onto the national stage, coming off the bench to throw three touchdowns and claim the national title. A year later, Tagovailoa is the overwhelming favorite to win the Heisman and will seal the award with a solid result here. His numbers are just ridiculous - he has completed more than 70 percent of his passes, throwing for 36 touchdowns while throwing just two picks. He had experienced a bit of a lull - for him that's relative, but he at least looked mortal - but was fully back in form last time out against Auburn, going 25 of 32 for 334 yards and five touchdowns. Georgia's defense is strong - 10th nationally in points allowed and Top 15 in total yards and passing yards - but they have not faced a quarterback anything like this one. Tagovailoa solved the Georgia defense on the fly last year and is much more prepared and experienced now. I find it hard to get too worried about Alabama's offensive potential in this one.

Jake Fromm isn't nearly as strong as Tagovailoa, and his passing numbers are far less eye-opening. But he has taken care of the ball well - 24 touchdowns and just five interceptions - and he is certainly competent. It's hard to judge what kind of defense he is really up against, either. Alabama is ranked third nationally in points allowed and shapes up well in other categories, too. But they certainly can't be accused of playing the strongest schedule in the country, so the numbers might not be as impressive as they seem. Alabama's run defense has been worse than their pass defense, and Georgia has two elite running backs at the heart of a run attack that essentially makes their offense tick. The Bulldogs are going to have to get that run established early to set themselves up well in this one. The problem, of course, is that Alabama knows that, and they will be ready.

Alabama vs. Georgia Odds and Betting Trends

The game opened with Alabama favored by as few as 12 points, but it was up to 12.5 almost instantly and at 13 soon after. It settled at 13.5 for a while, and as I write it is now testing the key number of 14 . About 60 percent of bets are on Alabama, so it is very possible that it will hit the 14 level widely and perhaps even move through it. The total opened at 64.5 and has fallen widely to 63.5.

The Tide have covered the spread in their last five conference games and five of their last six overall. They are 6-2 ATS in their last eight neutral-site games. Georgia has covered the spread in their last six neutral-site games and in four of their last five conference games. The underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last six meetings between these teams.

Alabama vs. Georgia Predictions and Picks

Last year it was very easy to be impressed by Georgia's chances heading into the national title game. But they aren't the team that they were last year, and Alabama is a more dynamic and impressive team - especially on offense. Kirby Smart still knows a lot of Alabama's secrets, but that advantage shrinks with time. This is a whole lot of points to give up, but on a neutral field with these lineups I see no option but to trust the Tide and give up the points. Alabama is the pick.

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