2018 Purdue Boilermakers Season Win Total Picks and Predictions for NCAA Football

2017 Record: 7-6

2018 Las Vegas Season Win Total: 6.0

2018 Season Win Total Picks NCAA Football: 'Under'

It didn't take long for Jeff Brohm to prove that he is an up-and-coming star in the coaching ranks. He took over a Purdue program that was a laughingstock under Darrell Hazell and got them to their first bowl game since 2012. In four years under Hazell, Purdue won nine games. Brohm won seven in his first season, including a bowl victory over Arizona.

Brohm and the Boilermakers won't sneak up on anyone this year. They could be even better now that they have nine starters back that are familiar with Brohm's high-powered offense. That includes a pair of experienced quarterbacks, their top five rushers, and four receivers that caught at least 20 passes last season. The offensive line is also intact with four senior starters and sophomore left tackle Grant Herhmanns coming back from injury.

Brohm is an offensive coach. But what Purdue did defensively last year was incredible. They nearly cut their points allowed in half, going from surrendering 38.3 in 2016 to just 20.5 points allowed per game last year. The Boilermakers were in the Top 30 in the country in rushing defense and scoring defense. And it came out of nowhere.

Unfortunately, Purdue lost seven starters from last year's defense and are down a stunning nine of their top 12 tacklers. This year's unit will shift its focus to causing more turnovers. But that's always a crapshoot and generally an unreliable way to play on that side of the ball.

Purdue's new-look defense will be tested right out of the gate. The Boilermakers are one of the rare teams in the country that actually open with a conference game, hosting divisional foe Northwestern. A loss there wouldn't be crippling, but it would dampen some of the optimism that is bubbling up around this program.

The Boilermakers open with four straight home games. That's the good news. The bad news is that Missouri and Boston College are far from pushovers, and Purdue could lose both of those games. Purdue also plays most of its winnable games on the road, facing rebuilding Nebraska, Illinois, Minnesota and revenge-minded Indiana all away from home. That means the late-season home games come against powerhouses like Ohio State, Iowa and Wisconsin.

I think that Purdue is going to take a step back before they take a step forward. Brohm knows what he's doing. And he spurned other suitors from better programs to stay in West Lafayette, so Purdue should give him the time he needs to build this program. But this schedule is brutal. I don't see any scenario where this team gets to seven wins, and this one is an easy 'under' call for me.

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