2018 Oregon Ducks Season Win Total Picks and Predictions for NCAA Football

2017 Record: 9-4

2018 Las Vegas Season Win Total: 9.0

2018 Season Win Total Picks NCAA Football: 'Under'

Mike Bellotti took over this Oregon program in 1995. He stayed there until 2008 and in that time turned the Ducks into a national brand and a true college football powerhouse. But in the decade since Bellotti's departure, Oregon has seen an alarming amount of coaching turnover, with first-year head coach Mario Cristobal becoming the fourth head coach in Eugene in the past six years.

Cristobal was the co-offensive coordinator for Oregon last year. That was the only season he has ever served as an offensive coordinator, serving as an offensive line coach at Alabama for four years prior to that. The Ducks are trying to keep continuity stretching back to the Chip Kelly days. But it seems like they are plucking riper and riper fruit with every new coaching hire.

Cristobal has a bit to work with in his first season. Justin Herbert has dealt with injury issues in each of his last two seasons. But he's shown some serious upside and completed nearly 68 percent of his passes last season. The kid has to stay healthy, though. He's entering his third year as a starter, and if the Ducks can get 12 healthy games out of him then they should be able to top last year's 36 points per game.

Oregon's offensive line has a trio of three-year starters up the middle, with their center and both guards entering their junior years having started every game they've played in. Oregon also has a host of highly-recruited skill players, and there is speed to burn at both receiver and running back. They do need to replace explosive Royce Freeman and his 1,475 rushing yards, though.

Oregon made some major strides on defense last year, cutting their points allowed from 41.4 in 2016 to 29.0 in 2017. Oregon has a future pro at middle linebacker in Troy Dye, the team's leader in tackles and tackles for loss. Mammoth nose tackle Jordon Scott is also back to anchor an improving front seven under stellar coordinator Jim Leavitt.

If the Ducks are going to make strides and challenge Washington and Stanford in the North then they need to improve their turnover differential. They were dead even last year (+0.0) and need to generate some extra possessions.

Oregon plays four straight home games to start the season, and five of their first six games are in Autzen Stadium. Their first three games - Bowling Green, Portland State and San Jose State - should be blowouts leading into a big-time early-season game against Stanford. Oregon also hosts Washington on Oct. 13, and they get a bye week to prepare for that one.

The Ducks also host rebuilding UCLA and Arizona State teams, and they have winnable road games at Washington State and Oregon State.

However, this number is too high. They have four really tough games: Stanford, Washington, at Arizona and at Utah. In order for the Ducks to beat this season win total number they have to win two of those games - while also avoiding any upsets. I don't trust that Herbert won't get hurt again. And I don't trust a first-year coach that's been in Eugene for about 15 minutes.

I do think that from a talent perspective that Oregon is on an upward trajectory. But there are too many unknowns here for me to think they will get to 10 wins. I think they will land exactly on nine. But I will err on the side of them coming up short.

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