2018 North Carolina Tar Heels Season Win Total Picks and Predictions for NCAA Football

2017 Record: 3-9

2018 Las Vegas Season Win Total: 5.5

2018 Season Win Total Picks NCAA Football: 'Over'

After winning 19 combined games in 2015 and 2016, including a trip to the ACC Championship in 2015, North Carolina fell off a cliff. The Tar Heels started 1-8 last season and failed to extend a four-year bowl streak. Now coach Larry Fedora will look for a big rebound season as he tries to step back up into the ACC's second tier.

Last year Fedora simply could not replace NFL draft early entry Mitch Trubisky at quarterback. Freshman Chazz Surratt and sophomore Nate Elliott were a mess, and three different Tar Heel quarterbacks threw at least 70 passes last season. Finding a leader under center is issue No. 1 for this Tar Heels offense.

Issue No. 2 will be the offensive line. North Carolina has recruited well. But they have just one starter back along the line, and they will likely end up starting a freshman and a sophomore up front. Experienced depth behind the projected starters is scarce.

The same can be said for the skill positions. UNC will have just one senior starter on offense, tight end Brandon Fritts. Beyond that there are a lot of freshmen and sophomores in line to get a lot of touches.

UNC is much more experienced on defense, where the entire starting 11 should be made up of juniors and seniors. The Heels have eight returning starters on that side of the ball. But this is the same group that was No. 112 in rush defense, No. 99 in total defense, and had a front seven that was basically as strong as a wet paper towel.

This year's campaign is already off to a horrible start off the field. UNC suspended 13 players for selling pairs of team-issued special edition sneakers. Nine players, including Surratt, are suspended for four games, while four other players will miss the first two games.

North Carolina is a rare team from a major conference that has to open with two road games. Their first test comes at Cal against a Golden Bears team that stunned the Heels 35-30 as 12-point underdogs in Chapel Hill last September. Week 2 the Heels travel to East Carolina. UNC's first home game comes against a Central Florida team that went undefeated last year.

North Carolina does have one of the easier ACC schedules, though. They avoid Clemson, Florida State and Boston College out of the Atlantic Division. And they get Coastal rivals Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech in Chapel Hill. UNC has just four true ACC road games, and they don't have to leave the state after October.

The suspensions have cast a dark cloud over a program that was already teetering a bit. But if the Heels can split their games at Cal and against Central Florida then they should pick up three wins in the nonconference. After that, they just need three wins in league play and they host N.C. State and Pittsburgh, two teams that I have struggling this year. A win over Syracuse, Virginia or Duke, or a home upset, would seal the deal for this squad. So even though the season has gotten off to a rocky start, I think it will end with a bowl game.

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