2018 New Mexico Lobos Season Win Total Picks and Predictions for NCAA Football

2017 Record: 3-9

2018 Las Vegas Season Win Total: 4.0*

2018 Season Win Total Picks NCAA Football: 'Under'

It has been an offseason of turmoil at New Mexico. Coach Bob Davie spent part of the offseason on suspension as the school investigated a host of ugly accusations. Davie managed to keep his job. And then this fall he managed to protect the football program from a range of budget cuts that gutted parts of the athletic department.

Davie was a sexy hire for a decidedly unsexy program. But he's had only two winning seasons in six years and is just 30-45 since coming to Albuquerque. And with a bit of a dark cloud hanging over the program, it is time to start wondering if Davie is worth the trouble. New Mexico's decision makers have decided he is mainly because they can't afford to go out and get anyone else.

The Lobos have 13 starters back from a team that went just 2-9 against FBS opponents last season. They are pinning their hopes on JUCO transfer, and former Tennessee recruit, Sheriron Jones, coming in and being a difference maker at quarterback.

The Lobos have their top running back and top receiver back from last year. But those two combined for just 1,063 total yards. The offensive line has just two starters back.

There's basically no top-end talent on the defense. New Mexico has allowed 32 points per game each of the last two seasons, and I suppose the highlight of this year's group is that they have eight seniors in the starting 11. They do have to replace four of their top six tacklers, though.

New Mexico opens with Incarnate Word, and they have beaten three straight FCS opponents. The Lobos close the month of September with another FCS opponent, Liberty. So they should be able to bag another victory there.

The "swing game" of their early-season schedule will be their rivalry game with New Mexico State on Sept. 15. The Lobos do have to go on the road for that one. But they have won the I-25 series 10 times in the last 14 meetings.

It doesn't look like there are many W's on the conference schedule. They have to play the three best teams in the league, Boise State, San Diego State and Fresno State, all at home. That should give the UNM faithful plenty of opportunity to see the Lobos get wrecked on their own turf. That also means most of their easiest games are on the road. New Mexico is just 12-47 away from home the last 10 years.

This season could be set up to get Davie fired. They have to go to Wisconsin in Week 2, and they could lose that one by 50. If they lose to rival NMSU the next week then Davie's seat will be very warm. The final nail could be putting up an 0-fer in MWC play, which is likely.

I don't think this team has a chance in hell of getting to five wins. And, frankly, I'll be surprised if they get to four. They've won more than four games only two times in 10 years, so this is an easy 'under' call for me.

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