NCAA Football Mid-Major Free Betting Picks: Utah State Aggies Week 6

Week 6 of the college football mid-major betting report is ready to go. The Utah State Aggies enter this Friday night's key showdown against BYU with a 3-1 record on the season. Thus far they have been a surprise to the upside according to most people, but the schedule gets more challenging in the coming weeks. We'll find out a lot more about this team very soon.

I chose to follow the Utah State football program this year. The Aggies haven't had a winning season since 2014. They were 6-7 a year ago and lost a bowl game to New Mexico State. Utah State has lost their last eight games decided by a touchdown or less. They were on the cusp of breaking out last year but couldn't get over the hump. We'll see if they can do it this season. I'll be following Utah State beat writers, following players and coaches on Twitter, and reading the press conference transcripts to find information on the Aggies. I'll be looking to make myself an expert on this Utah State football team.

How have the selections on the mid-major betting report done overall? The overall record is 48 wins and 33 losses with a gain of $2,020. Last year, I followed the Marshall Thundering Herd as they tried to recover from a bad season in 2016. Marshall did have a nice bounce-back season, and the selections last year went 8-5 and we finished up $520. It was nice to have another strong season.

There will be a selection on each game at the end of the weekly article. We'll be using the Doc's Sports Unit Betting System for every pick, which will allow readers to follow along and track the results.

Last Game

Utah State's athletic program spent a lot of time building up their home contest against Air Force a couple weeks ago. I don't blame them since it was a rare nationally-televised game at home for the Aggies. Utah Jazz star Donovan Mitchell was on hand, and Utah State fans did show up and make it a great environment. In the end, Utah State defeated Air Force 42-32.

Utah State built up a big lead, but Air Force came storming back to make it a 35-32 contest. Utah State's Gerold Bright ran for a 70-yard touchdown to make it 42-32 and seal the win for the Aggies. Excluding that carry, Utah State had only 63 rushing yards in this contest, so the running attack wasn't as consistent as it has been in previous game. Jordan Love threw for 356 yards. Love also had two touchdown passes and no interceptions.

On the defensive side, Utah State allowed 471 yards here, but Air Force ran 114 offensive plays in this game. Tipa Galeai continues to be a great addition to this defense. He had 11 tackles, including one sack, in this game. Taylor Hintze has done a great job as Utah State's punter, and he averaged a whopping 46.2 yards per punt in the win over Air Force.

The selection of Air Force +11 cashed in from the last mid-major betting report.

Notes of Interest

-Utah State defeated BYU last year, and BYU still has a bitter taste from that game. Utah State celebrated more than some BYU players thought they should have after the Aggies win last year, and there was even a pregame ruckus before last year's game. BYU star Corbin Kaufusi said this week, "If that's how they want to do it then that's okay. They have their opinion of how they went to do things, but we like to do things our way, and the big dogs are going to have show their bite."

-Utah State had a bye last week to prepare for this contest. BYU was beaten badly by Washington. The Huskies won 35-7, and that game wasn't even as close as the final score would indicate. This is a crucial game for BYU, as they try to bounce back from a disappointing blowout loss.

-Matt Wells was asked about how Utah State has been unable to run the football against BYU on a consistent basis over the years at his press conference this week. Wells said that has a lot to do with how strong BYU is on the defensive line every year, and they are once again strong on the defensive line this year.

-Wells said that the bye week was very helpful for the team based on how much the defense was on the field against Air Force. Utah State's defense has been able to get healthier with the bye week. The Aggies defense ranks eighth in the country in yards per play allowed so far this year, so they have been tremendous.

Betting Trends

-Utah State is 4-0 against the spread in their last four games overall.

-Utah State is 2-14 ATS in their last 16 games against a team with a winning record.

-BYU is 3-7 ATS in their last ten games against a team with a winning record.

-BYU is 4-0 ATS in their last four following a loss.

-The underdog is 8-2 ATS in the last ten meetings between these two teams.

Utah State at BYU College Football Odds

BYU opened as a 3-point favorite in this one, but that has been bet down to 2.5 points across the board . The posted total opened at 55 points. It sat at 55 for quite a while, but this afternoon this one was bet down to 54. There are even a couple 53.5's out there.

Utah State at BYU College Football Picks

BYU has played the much tougher schedule thus far, but I'm not convinced that BYU is the better team here. The Cougars are 121st out of 130 teams in the country in yards per play on offense. Utah State's defense shouldn't give up much against this BYU offense. BYU wants to run the ball consistently, but I see Utah State's front seven as a major strength.

Utah State having a bye week to get ready for this game is a big plus. The Aggies are clearly an improved team this year. BYU's defense is good, but their offense is a major weakness. I think Utah State is the more balanced team.

Since 2.5 is all I can get on the underdog, I'm going to take the moneyline here instead. Many studies have shown that taking plus money on the moneyline in the long-term is a better move than grabbing less than a field goal. Of course, that can burn you at times, but in the long run I would certainly favor taking the moneyline.

I'll take Utah State moneyline (+115) for two units.

Pick #311- Utah State Moneyline (+115) for 2 units

Season Results- 3 Wins 0 Losses (+$300)

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