NCAA Football Mid-Major Free Betting Picks: Utah State Aggies Week 4

Week 4 of the college football mid-major betting report is ready to go. Utah State enters 2-1 on the season. They've won the games they were expected to win and lost the one game they were expected to lose (in a close battle). Now, is the time we start finding out a lot more about this Utah State team.

I chose to follow the Utah State football program this year. The Aggies haven't had a winning season since 2014. They were 6-7 a year ago and lost a bowl game to New Mexico State. Utah State has lost their last eight games decided by a touchdown or less. They were on the cusp of breaking out last year but couldn't get over the hump. We'll see if they can do it this season. I'll be following beat writers, following players and coaches on Twitter, and reading the press conference transcripts to find information on the Aggies. I'll be looking to make myself an expert on this Utah State football team.

How have the selections on the mid-major betting report done overall? The overall record is 48 wins and 33 losses with a gain of $2,020. Last year, I followed the Marshall Thundering Herd as they tried to recover from a bad season in 2016. Marshall did have a nice bounce-back season, and the selections last year went 8-5 and we finished up $520. It was nice to have another strong season.

There will be a selection on each game at the end of the weekly article. We'll be using the Doc's Sports Unit Betting System for every pick, which will allow readers to follow along and track the results.

Last Game

Utah State crushed Tennessee Tech 73-12 last week. I don't want to make too much of a blowout win over a poor FCS opponent. Still, Utah State took care of business in this one. The Aggies ran for seven touchdowns. Utah State averaged 76.9 yards per carry. Utah State piled up 31 first downs in the contest. Tennessee Tech had only 12 first downs, and they were a miserable 1-for-12 on third-down-conversion attempts. Utah State was 7-for-11 on third-down-conversion attempts.

Utah State still needs to clean things up a bit. The Aggies turned the ball over twice in the win. Utah State has had a bit of a problem with turnovers in the early going this year.

There was no selection last week since most books didn't even have a line on the game.

Notes of Interest

-This weekend's game will be at home against Air Force at 10:15 p.m. EST. The game will be televised nationally on ESPN2.

-Jason Turner, Utah State beat writer for the The Herald Journal, wrote an article about how Utah State fans needed to pack Maverik Stadium for this weekend's game. Air Force is a rival for Utah State, and the Falcons have had a lot of success against them in recent years. It's the Mountain West opener for both teams. Turner said the stadium was less than half full in last week's win over Tennessee Tech. It's understandable for that game to have been poorly attended, but it will be interesting to see if Utah State can get a lot of fans into the stadium this week. If the fans are invested in this program's success, this would be a good weekend to show up. Matt Wells said earlier this week, "It's an ESPN kick-off, our only late one of the year. I'll make sure that gets in print. This is our only late game of the year. Let's get everybody out. There's no reason why Maverik Stadium shouldn't be rocking really loud."

-Donovan Mitchell was present at the Utah Utes home opener this year, and he has been at several key athletic events in his short time in the area. The Utah State Aggies are making a public push to try to get him to come to this weekend's home contest. Zac Nyborg, director of player personnel at Utah State, posted on Twitter asking Mitchell to come. Mitchell responded on Twitter saying he might have to make it work.

-Through three games, Utah State is first in the Mountain West conference in yards per play allowed at 4.28. That's also No. 15 in the country. This Aggies defense has been really strong.

-One of the most interesting things about this year's Air Force team is that they haven't announced a defensive coordinator. That's almost unheard of in college football today.

-Air Force has only thrown the ball 21 times in three games, so Utah State better be ready for a heavy dose of running. The Falcons have always been a very run-heavy team with the triple-option, but they are throwing it even less so far this season.

Betting Trends

-The 'over' is 5-1 in Air Force's last six road games.

-Air Force is 10-3 against the spread in their last 13 September games.

-Air Force is 3-12 ATS in their last 15 Mountain West contests.

-Utah State is 5-14 in their last 19 Mountain West games.

-The over is 19-7 in Utah State's last 26 conference games.

-Air Force is 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings between these two.

Air Force at Utah State College Football Odds

Utah State opened as anywhere from 8.5- to 9.5-point favorites, depending on the book. That number has been bet up across the board. Utah State is now favored by 10.5 at most books, and there are a couple books that show Utah State -11. The posted total opened at 61.5, but it has been bet up to 64 across the board.

Air Force at Utah State College Football Picks

Air Force has done surprisingly well stopping the run so far this year. They allowed only 1.86 yards per carry against a really good Florida Atlantic rushing attack. At the same time, they allowed 471 passing yards in that game. Utah State's rushing game is a big key in this game. Can they run the football and stay balanced?

I think Utah State wins this game, but I'm going to grab the 11 points with Air Force as a small play. Air Force has played Utah State tough in the past few seasons. Air Force is coming into this game with a bye as well.

This should be a high-scoring contest, but I can't take an over at that high of a level with Air Force running the ball every down and playing at a slow pace.

This should be an interesting contest. I'll back Air Force for one unit.

Pick #391- Air Force +11 (1 unit)

Season Results- 2 Wins 0 Losses (+$200)

Doc's Sports is offering a great deal for new clients - you can get $60 worth of free college football picks with no obligation. No credit card is needed, and you will never have to deal with a salesman. Get $60 worth of premium members' picks free . Also, get three handicappers for the price of one when you sign up for a full-season football package! Click Here for details . Get free weekly free college football picks at Doc's Sports free football picks page.

Read more articles by Aaron Smith