NCAA Football Mid-Major Free Betting Picks: Utah State Aggies Week 13

The Utah State Aggies escaped with a win at Colorado State last week. The Aggies still sit at No. 14 in the Associated Press Top 25 Poll. Utah State nearly slipped up and cost themselves a great opportunity, but they did hold on for the win. Now, it's time for the showdown at Boise State. The winner of this matchup between two Top 25 teams will win the Mountain Division and host Fresno State in the Mountain West Championship Game on Dec. 1.

I chose to follow the Utah State football program this year because of their potential for a breakout season. The Aggies haven't had a winning season since 2014. They were 6-7 a year ago and lost a bowl game to New Mexico State. Utah State had lost their last eight games decided by a touchdown or less. They were on the cusp of breaking out last year but couldn't get over the hump. I'll be following Utah State beat writers, following players and coaches on Twitter, and reading the press conference transcripts to find information on the Aggies. The goal is for me to become an expert on this Utah State Aggies team.

How have the selections on the mid-major betting report done overall? Coming into this season, the overall record is 48 wins and 33 losses with a gain of $2,020. Last year, I followed the Marshall Thundering Herd as they tried to recover from a bad season in 2016. Marshall did have a nice bounce-back season, and the selections last year went 8-5 and we finished up $520. It was nice to have another strong season.

There will be a selection on each game at the end of the weekly article. We'll be using the Doc's Sports Unit Betting System for every pick , which will allow readers to follow along and track the results.

Last Game

Utah State beat Colorado State 29-24 last weekend, but they were very fortunate to win that game. Colorado State outgained Utah State 506 yards to 310 yards. The Rams threw what appeared to be the game-winning touchdown on the final play of the game, but it was called back due to a penalty. The Aggies found a way to win this one, but it certainly wasn't their best effort.

Colorado State had 29 first downs in this contest, while Utah State had only 16. The Rams pulled out all the tricks in this one, including a fake punt. Colorado State turned the ball over twice in this game, though, and that ended up being the key to Utah State winning. Colorado State was also penalized 11 times.

Utah State averaged 5.0 yards per carry. Colorado State ran for only 4.5 yards per carry. Colorado State threw for 307 yards. The defensive star for Utah State was once again David Woodward. Woodward has a bright future ahead of him in the NFL. He racked up 20 tackles in this one.

The selection on Utah State was a loser last week. It was the first loss of the season for the selections at the end of this article.

Notes of Interest

-Steve Godfrey, writer for the Deseret News, put together a great article this week about Utah State football. In Godfrey's article he looked at some little things that Utah State needs to take care of in order to beat a team like Boise State. Taylor Hintze has struggled in a big way at punter of late. Hintze ranks in the Bottom 20 in the nation in terms of yards per punt, and the Aggies have been losing the field position battle of late. He also pointed out that Jordan Nathan being out with an injury on the return team last weekend led to a late muffed catch and gave Colorado State an opportunity. Nathan is questionable for this weekend's crucial game.

-Matt Wells was quick to point out this week that his team set out to win the Mountain West title this year. He reminded everyone that this game is for the Mountain Division, but Utah State's end goal wouldn't be accomplished without a win both this week and next weekend. This Aggies team has set very high goals for this year, and thus far they have done an amazing job working toward them.

-Boise State is pushing hard to try to set an attendance record for this game on Saturday night. Bryan Harsin said earlier this week, "Hopefully, we have a great crowd and hopefully everything is rocking and it's loud and that blue field is shaking all game long."

-Both Utah State and Boise State rank in the Top 15 in the nation in turnover margin. Utah State is eighth in the country in yards per play margin, while Boise State is 44th. Boise State ranks 32nd in the country in yards per carry allowed, but the Broncos are 109th in the country in yards per pass attempt allowed. Jordan Love and the Aggies passing attack are going to need to come up big for Utah State this weekend.

Betting Trends

-Utah State is 4-14 against the spread in their last 18 vs. a team with a winning record.

-Utah State is 5-2 ATS in their last seven after an ATS loss.

-Boise State is 6-15 ATS in their last 21 home games.

-Utah State is 3-11-2 ATS in their last 16 meetings with Boise State.

Utah State at Boise State College Football Odds

Boise State opened as three-point favorites at home in this showdown. The Broncos are now favored by 2.5 points across the board . The posted total opened at 68, and it has edged down to 67.5.

Utah State at Boise State College Football Picks

Do you take the team that has been better all year long? Do you take the team that has been here before? It's a classic handicapping question. I am going to stay away from the side in this game. I see this as a much better game to watch than bet on the side. This should be a great game with a lot on the line.

Both passing attacks have an advantage, and I expect to see a lot of big plays through the air. Utah State ranks 16th in the nation in tempo, and Boise State has been playing with a quicker tempo recently. I will take the over 67.5 for a unit.

If Utah State wins this one, they'll be in the title game next weekend. If not, we'll see where they end up for a bowl game.

Pick #183 Boise State/Utah State over 67.5

Season Results- 8 Wins 1 Loss (+$910)

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