NCAA Football Mid-Major Free Betting Picks: Utah State Aggies Week 10

The mid-major report is back, and the big news this week is Utah State is into the Top 25. Not only are they in the Top 25, but they jumped all the way up to No. 18! That's what happens when you dominate the way the Aggies have of late and there are upsets galore at the bottom of the Top 25 rankings.

I chose to follow the Utah State football program this year. The Aggies haven't had a winning season since 2014. They were 6-7 a year ago and lost a bowl game to New Mexico State. Utah State had lost their last eight games decided by a touchdown or less. They were on the cusp of breaking out last year but couldn't get over the hump. I'll be following Utah State beat writers, following players and coaches on Twitter, and reading the press conference transcripts to find information on the Aggies. I'll be looking to make myself an expert on this Utah State football team.

How have the selections on the mid-major betting report done overall? Coming into this season, the overall record is 48 wins and 33 losses with a gain of $2,020. Last year, I followed the Marshall Thundering Herd as they tried to recover from a bad season in 2016. Marshall did have a nice bounce-back season, and the selections last year went 8-5 and we finished up $520. It was nice to have another strong season.

There will be a selection on each game at the end of the weekly article. We'll be using the Doc's Sports Unit Betting System for every pick, which will allow readers to follow along and track the results.

Last Game

Utah State absolutely blew the doors off the New Mexico Lobos last weekend. The Aggies led 52-5 at halftime and ended up winning 61-19. Jordan Love has been amazing this year, but he played a poor game at Wyoming a couple weeks ago. How did Love respond last weekend? He threw for a whopping 448 yards in the first half alone against New Mexico! Utah State spread the ball around very well on Saturday in the passing attack. There were 14 different players who had at least one catch in that blowout win.

New Mexico turned the ball over five times. Utah State intercepted four passes, and Shaquez Bond had a 100-yard pick six for the Aggies in this contest. Dominik Eberle was 4/4 on field goals and he has been solid all year for Utah State. The Aggies did turn the ball over three times on offense here. Eltoro Allen had two fumbles in only nine carries.

Utah State finished with 704 yards of total offense, and they thoroughly dominated New Mexico in every aspect of the game. The Utah State -20 selection from last week was a winner.

Notes of Interest

-Utah State ranks 18th in the new AP Top 25, and they are 20th in the US Today Coaches Poll. On the other hand, they are nowhere to be found in the College Football Playoff Rankings. It's very rare for Utah State to be ranked in college football, so that is a huge positive for the university. At the same time, the Aggies have to be feeling a little snubbed by the lack of any respect from the selection committee. For teams like Iowa State and Mississippi State, who have three losses, to be ahead of Utah State doesn't seem right to me. The Aggies have been tremendous, and their lone loss was on the road against a Big Ten opponent.

-Jason Turner, Utah State beat writer for the The Herald Journal, wrote this week about the Aggies overall balance as a team. Turner pointed out that Utah State isn't a team with a couple superstars, rather they are a team loaded with a bunch of very good players. Darwin Thompson and Gerold Bright are both averaging at least 6.0 yards per carry. Utah State has 17 players with at least one catch this year and eight guys have at least 10 receptions. Utah State is the only team in the Mountain West ranked in the top three in total offense and total defense. The Aggies have a team full of guys who just want to win, and that has made them extremely dangerous. Matt Wells has talked about the benefits of a player-led team with great balance all year. Wells said this week, "A player-led team can be great. A coach-led team can be only good."

-Jordan Love has 18 touchdown passes this year. He has a real chance of passing Chuckie Keaton's Utah State record of 27 touchdown passes in one year. Utah State is also set to blow away their all-time record for touchdowns in a season. The previous record sits at 60 touchdowns. Utah State already has 50 touchdowns this year!

Betting Trends

-Utah State is 7-1 against the spread in their last eight games overall.

-Utah State is 2-10 ATS in their last 12 November games.

-Hawaii is 5-21-1 ATS in their last 27 home games.

-The 'over' is 22-8 in Utah State's last 30 conference games.

-The over is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings between these two in Hawaii.

Utah State at Hawaii College Football Odds

Utah State opened as 19-point favorites on the road. The Aggies are now favored by 20 points at most books . The posted total here opened at 70.5. This is a split total with some books as low as 70.5 and others as high as 71.5.

Utah State at Hawaii College Football Picks

Utah State is averaging 49.4 points per game on the season. Hawaii is one of the worst defenses they have faced this year. Hawaii has given up 53 plays of 20 yards or more this year, so I would expect a lot of explosive plays coming from Utah State's offense here. Hawaii's secondary has been particularly weak. Hawaii is allowing 8.76 yards per passing attempt, which is tenth worst in the country.

Utah State and Hawaii both push the pace, so I expect to see a lot of possessions in this contest. Hawaii will throw the ball early and often, and Utah State's secondary hasn't been tested by many good passing attacks so far this year.

I expect Utah State to win and put up a lot of points here. Hawaii should score enough to get this one over the total. I'll take the over for two units here.

Pick #423- Utah State/Hawaii over 70.5 (2 units)

Season Results- 7 Wins 0 Losses (+$930)

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