Free NCAA Football Picks: Kansas State at West Virginia Odds and Predictions

Kansas State Wildcats at West Virginia Mountaineers, Saturday Sept. 22, 3:30 p.m. ET

This isn't a great matchup by any means, but the schedule is short of marquee matchups this week, so we can't be too choosy. West Virginia has come into the season with some buzz, and they have built on that with two solid performances so far. On the flip side, Kansas State probably came in with less respect than they have in recent years, and they have done nothing to prove that they deserved better. The Wildcats need to find a way to capture some mojo and make this season mean something - and an upset here would certainly help. West Virginia needs to keep rolling, overcome some weather-related obstacles, and prove that they are worthy of the respect they are getting. If nothing else, both coaches have coached more than their share of games, so this is a bit of a masterclass - or at least it should be.

Kansas State at West Virginia Betting Storylines

Hurricane season has wreaked havoc on the college football season again this year. West Virginia was one of the disrupted teams as their contest at N.C. State last week was postponed. So, the team comes into this one having had to deal with an unexpected bye week. They knew early enough that it wasn't a massive problem. They just treated last week like another week of fall camp, with scrimmages filling the game void as best as they could. It's not an ideal situation, and it raises more questions for a team that I already struggle to believe in. There are a lot of people who like this team more than I do - they are ranked 13th. But they haven't really proven anything so far with a win over a truly lousy Tennessee team and a meaningless massacre of Youngstown State. Will Grier is getting some Heisman buzz, and with nine touchdown passes and just one pick, and a completion rate of 76.7 percent, it is no surprise. But the sample size is small. And while Grier has scored a lot of points in his time in West Virginia, and he has some impressive receivers to toss it to, I struggle to have a lot of faith in his head coach. Dana Holgorsen seems to have perfected the art of underachievement, and while this is not yet a top-level opponent, I am not convinced that this team will fold up when it faces the highest level of teams.

Kansas State is always a feisty team that comes ready to play, but they haven't been particularly impressive so far. They squeaked past South Dakota by just a field goal as 24-point favorites in the opener. Then they manhandled UTSA last week, but that doesn't prove anything. They have struggled to settle on a QB, but Skylar Thompson, who is also the team's second-leading rusher, seems to be edging ahead in the race, and he should see the most time here. The offense hasn't been great, and the defense has been even worse - particularly against the run. West Virginia's offense is more of an air attack, but they have been running the ball better than average this season, and you can be sure that they will be looking to exploit this weakness as much as they can - both to move the ball and to set up room for Grier to do his thing.

Kansas State at West Virginia Odds and Betting Trends

The game opened with West Virginia favored by 14.5. After climbing up to 17, it has since fallen back to 16 . Nearly 60 percent of all bets have been on the Mountaineers, so the line movement is consistent with expectations. The total opened at 62 and has fallen slightly to 60.5.

The Wildcats are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five road games but just 2-5 ATS in their last seven against teams with winning records and 1-4 ATS in their last five in September. The Mountaineers are an ugly 1-3-1 ATS in their last five at home and have gone just 7-16-1 ATS in their last 24 against teams with winning records.

Kansas State at West Virginia Predictions and Picks

I don't like this West Virginia team much in the long run. I don't believe. But this sets up well. Kansas State's defense can be exploited by this West Virginia offense, and it is tough to believe that the Kansas State offense can make it into a shootout. It feels like this will be a lopsided game, so West Virginia is the pick at home.

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