2018 Navy Midshipmen Season Win Total Picks and Predictions for NCAA Football

2017 Record: 7-6

2018 Las Vegas Season Win Total: 7.0*

2018 Season Win Total Prediction: 'Under'

Navy has been one of the most consistent college football programs in the country in this young century. The Midshipmen have posted a winning record in 14 of the past 15 years, playing in six straight bowl games. But I have a feeling that the bloom is off the rose in regards to Navy's addition to the AAC. And this will be a telling season when it comes to the Middies staying power.

Navy has seen its win total drop each of the three years that they've been associated with a conference. After a wild 11-win campaign in their first year in the AAC, Navy has won nine games and then seven games. And with just nine total starters back this year, Navy will be hard pressed to match last season's win total.

Quarterback Malcolm Perry (5-10, 185 pounds) is smaller than the normal Navy signal caller. But he is lightning fast and a big play machine. He averaged 8.6 yards per carry last season and had three runs of 80 yards or more. Last year's leading rusher, former quarterback Zach Abey, has moved to receiver. And Navy has two other promising backs to work their option attack through.

Last year the Midshipmen had seven returning defensive starters and shaved five points per game off their allowance. This year they have just four back on that side of the ball. They need to replace seven of their top 10 tacklers from last year. And while three of those returnees, end Jarvis Polu, linebacker Hudson Sullivan, and safety Sean Williams, are all three-year starters, this is still a pretty green group.

Navy has an intriguing opening month. They start the year in Hawaii before hosting Memphis in what will be a big game in the AAC West. Navy hosts Lehigh and then has a 50-50 game at SMU, a team they've beaten eight straight times. The Midshipmen need to bank three wins in that group if they are going to match last season's win total.

The AAC schedule is a bear. Over one five-game stretch the Midshipmen host Temple and Houston in back-to-back weeks before a huge nonconference game with Notre Dame in San Diego on Oct. 27. The next week they play at Cincinnati before a trip to Central Florida to take on the defending AAC champs.

Whether or not the Midshipmen top their season win total will likely come down to how they perform against their Armed Services rivals. And Navy has to face both Air Force and Army on the road.

There are too many obstacles for Navy this year. They have a 13-game schedule, so most books won't carry this number. But if you find one that does and it is anywhere near 7.0 or 6.5 then definitely hit the 'under' as I see this team struggling to get above .500.

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