2018 Iowa State Cyclones Season Win Total Picks and Predictions for NCAA Football

2017 Record: 8-5

2018 Las Vegas Season Win Total: 6.5

2018 Season Win Total Picks NCAA Football: 'Under'

Iowa State rode the lightning last year. And for a solid month they were the talk of college football. A stunning upset win over No. 3 Oklahoma as a 31-point underdog got everyone's attention. And underdog wins over Texas Tech and No. 4 TCU got the Cyclones all the way up to No. 14 in the country. They eventually capped the season with a third win over a ranked team, upsetting Memphis in the Liberty Bowl.

It was a banner year. And now everyone is waiting to see what Matt Campbell can do for an encore.

The Cyclones have just 12 total returning starters, six on both sides of the ball. But offensively they retained starting quarterback Kyle Kempt, whose efficiency and care of the ball helped spark their surge last season. Iowa State also welcomes back three-year starter David Montgomery, a sensational running back that will be playing on Sundays, and solid left tackle Julian Good-Jones.

On defense they will definitely miss Joel Lansing. But they have a lot of experience in the secondary, including four-year starters Brian Peavy and D'Andre Payne at corner.

How will Iowa State adjust to their sudden notoriety? Their eight wins last year matched their win total for the previous three years combined and was their highest total in more than a decade. And now no one is going to be overlooking the Cyclones. That trip to Ames used to be a guaranteed 'W' for the bigger programs. But after last season's upsets I think that Iowa State will get a lot of people's 'A' game.

We've seen teams have dream seasons like this in the past. But momentum and magic don't carry over from year to year. This is a new season, and one good month doesn't make up for decades of incompetence from this program. Iowa State does get five Big 12 home games. But one of them is against Oklahoma, who will be out for some major revenge after last season's beating.

Iowa State's schedule is very front-loaded. They have to play rival Iowa the week before that OU showdown. And if the Cyclones lose back-to-back big games early in the season then that could pop their balloon heading into a killer three-game stretch at TCU, at Oklahoma State and at home against West Virginia. It's very possible that this team could be 2-5 going into their Oct. 20 bye. And if that happens then I don't know if they will have the confidence to win four of their final five and get back to a bowl.

I do think that Iowa State has the goods to get to six wins and make it back-to-back bowl games. But I think that seven wins is a bridge too far. I think they can go 5-2 at home this season. And they will likely be favored at Kansas. But unless they can find another upset on the road, they won't get to seven wins. Play this one 'under'.

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