Free College Football Picks: Florida Gators at Georgia Bulldogs Odds and Predictions

Florida Gators at Georgia Bulldogs, Saturday Oct. 27, 3:30 p.m. ET

The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party is the best name for any football game there is, and you can't deny it. And this year it's a good game as well, which hasn't been the case for a while as these teams have been working to find their way. Both teams are solid, and both have a lot on the line here. Georgia started the trend two weeks back of being humiliated when ranked No. 2, and they were off last week, so they are looking to get their mojo back. Florida is well ahead of schedule in the first year after a coaching change, and they need to keep it going.

And, most significantly, these two teams are tied atop their division, and the winner will essentially cripple the loser's chances this late in the season. Both are tied with Kentucky as well, and Florida has lost to the Wildcats, which is a problem for them, but Georgia still plays Kentucky, so they control their own destiny. Of course, the winner of the division is likely going to get smoked by Alabama in the SEC Championship Game, but we can cross that bridge later.

Florida at Georgia Betting Storylines

Georgia looked outclassed against LSU. It was ugly. And after a setback like that, teams can respond in one of two ways - they can settle in to who they are and can act like their flaws were exposed, or they can use it as a wakeup call and rally at a whole new level. We have a bit of a hint of how Georgia might react. Last year the Bulldogs lost to Auburn by 23 and looked at least as bad as they did against LSU two weeks ago. People were similarly skeptical of the team as a result, but they played their best football from then on. They won their last two regular-season games handily, beat up on Auburn in the SEC Championship Game to exact revenge, beat Oklahoma in the playoff semis, and lost to Alabama in overtime. It was as if the team needed the setback to be woken up and reminded of what was needed. In order for them to get back on track in the same way starting here, Jake Fromm is going to have to be dramatically better than he was last time out. He was terrible against LSU, completing less than half of his passes and throwing two ugly picks. We know he is better than that, and he will have to be here. It won't be easy, though - Florida's secondary is extremely good, so the deep passing game isn't likely to be successful for Fromm.

Florida's biggest advantage here is that they are playing with house money. No one expected them to be as competitive as they are this year, so a loss wouldn't be a shock and a win would be a bonus. And they also beat LSU a week before the Tigers, so they should have confidence. But they are up against a secondary that is also very strong, and their Feleipe Franks-led offense is neither particularly good nor particularly consistent. With two defenses that aren't going to give up a lot through the air, it's going to come down to running games and to whichever quarterback can make more from less. On both fronts Georgia is a little easier to trust.

Florida at Georgia Odds and Betting Trends

The game opened with Georgia favored by 6.5. It has danced around a little and has been at seven for a decent amount of time, but it is back at 6.5 as I write . Action is evenly split between the teams, so there shouldn't be significant movement barring any news. The total opened at 52 and has been stable in early action.

The Gators have covered the spread in their last four conference games and last five overall. They are 4-1 ATS in their last five against teams with winning records and 5-2 ATS in their last seven in October. The Bulldogs have covered the spread in their last five neutral-site games and in six of their last eight against teams with winning records. They are just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games following a bye, though. The Gators are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these teams, and five of the last seven games have gone "under" the total. The favorite is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.

Florida at Georgia Predictions and Picks

I like what Florida is doing and will admit to being quite surprised by it. But Georgia, despite some concerning play early on, is more talented and has more to offer up against the defense they face than Florida does. If the number was to go over a touchdown - or even to it - then we'd have to reconsider, but at this price Georgia is the play.

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