Expert NCAA Football Predictions: Boise State at Oklahoma State Odds

Boise State Broncos at Oklahoma State Cowboys, Saturday Sept. 15, 3:30 p.m. ET

The opportunities for puns for bad headline writers in this game are staggering. They must be giddy. 'This time the Broncos ride the Cowboys'. 'As usual, the Cowboys tamed the Broncos'. I just did their work for them regardless of who wins. You're welcome.

Puns aside, this is one heck of an intriguing matchup, pardner. Sorry, I can't help myself. Boise State has their best team since Chris Petersen was in charge, and this is a chance to serve notice that people need to be paying attention to them nationally. And Oklahoma State is looking to avoid a rebuild after the departure of star QB Mason Rudolph. Both teams are unbeaten but also untested. This is a serious measuring stick for both programs. A loss won't be fatal to either team in any real way, but it will hurt.

Boise State at Oklahoma State Betting Storylines

Boise State hasn't played anyone, really, but their offense has been absolutely terrifying so far - in a good way. Last week they were 34-point favorites against Connecticut, and they were up 48-0 before taking a breath, ultimately winning 62-7. They had a school-record 818 yards of offense, with an incredible balance - 418 through the air and 400 on the ground. And their defense held the Huskies to just 193 yards as well, so it wasn't a one-dimensional outing. And the week before that they traveled to Alabama to play Troy and came out on top 56-20 against a solid team while favored by only nine. That long trip for that game was an excellent preparation for this trip as well. The Broncos have done more than expected both times but haven't faced nearly the resistance that they will in this one. Everyone can think of offenses that have looked great until tested. But QB Brett Rypien, who has completed 73.2 percent of his passes for 667 yards and seven TDs without a pick, leads a talented offense. They won't put up UConn numbers, but I struggle to believe that Oklahoma State can stop them completely - or even mostly.

The guy charged with the unenviable task of filling Randolph's shoes is Taylor Cornelius, a senior who was an understudy throughout Rudolph's time. He has looked okay, but sadly not better than that. Against FCS foe Missouri State in his debut he threw for 295 yards and five touchdowns, but that is discounted given the competition, and there were a couple of passes that were ugly - and would have been very costly against better competition. And in a blowout win over South Alabama last week he threw for 428 yards but converted that into only one touchdown and was picked off twice - the second of which was horrible. Cornelius is facing a very confident, talented offense in this one, and that could be a problem.

Boise State at Oklahoma State Odds and Betting Trends

The game opened with Oklahoma State favored by 3.5. A small majority of bets have been on the Broncos, though, so the line has been on the move. It can now be found widely at 2.5 , so it has made the significant move through the key number of three. Books hate risking being middled at that number, so the move suggests that sharp money is hitting Boise State pretty hard. The total opened at 63.5 and has mostly been stable, though hints of a climb to 64 - and potentially beyond - are out there.

The Broncos are 7-2 ATS in their last nine overall and 4-0 ATS in their last four nonconference games, but they are a dismal 5-11 ATS in their last 16 against teams with winning records. The Cowboys are 7-1 ATS in their last eight conference games. The "over" is 7-1 in Oklahoma State's last eight games and 5-2 in Boise State's last seven.

Boise State at Oklahoma State Predictions and Picks

The Broncos are confident against Power 5 competition, having won six of their last nine games, and covered the spread in five. And they are talented and determined this year. They have a solid edge in coaching in my eyes, too. Stillwater is a tough place to play, but I don't trust this Cowboys' roster too much right now. Boise State feels like a fairly comfortable play at less than a field goal, and I'd even take them if it somehow went back to the opening number. I look for an outright road win here - perhaps a decisive one. So, just saddle up, head to the betting window, and lasso yourself some profits.

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