Free Expert NCAA Football Picks: Georgia at LSU Odds and Predictions

Georgia Bulldogs at LSU Tigers, Saturday Oct. 13, 3:30 p.m. ET

I told my eight-year-old son over breakfast this morning that this was the first game I was writing about today. He's not a zoologist, but he does watch a lot of "Wild Kratts", so when he said that a tiger would eat a bulldog without breaking a sweat, and he'd still be hungry after, I listened. Dark, but not wrong. So, do with that what you will as you make your pick here.

This is the second week in a row we have looked at an LSU game. And, spoiler alert, it will very likely be the second week in a row we pick against them. They played a Florida team that is fast improving but which shouldn't have been as good as LSU made it look. This is a battle between two teams ranked in the Top 12 nationally, but one of the flaws of the rankings has always been that it tends to reward teams with strong reputations for longer than it should. That sure feels like the case here - LSU does not feel as good as the rankings say they are.

Georgia at LSU Betting Storylines

You almost have to feel bad for Georgia QB Jake Fromm. He has completed better than 72 percent of his passes in five of his six games and has 12 touchdowns and only two picks. Yet not only is not he not getting a lot of Heisman love because of the massive shadow cast by his rival at Alabama, but there are people around the program who still think Justin Fields is the better prospect. LSU has a defense with multiple guys who will play on Sundays, so Fromm is up for a big test here. The Gators scored 27 points last week, so you might think that the defense had a bad day, but that isn't true. Feleipe Franks was just 12 of 27 for 161 yards with a score and a pick. Those are hardly eye-popping numbers. Now, Fromm is 38 times the QB now that Franks could ever even dream of being, but it would still be a mistake to assume that Fromm will cruise here.

Speaking of quarterbacks, it is pretty important here that the Tigers have the better QB in this game if they are going to succeed. And that is really bad news for them. Joe Burrow just isn't gaining enough traction to make me even mildly consider trusting him. He went 19 of 34 for just 192 yards with two picks last week and has yet to have a game that really makes me a believer in him. Georgia has another very strong defense, ranking second nationally in points allowed. I expect Burrow to have a very long day.

Maybe the most interesting thing to watch in this game is how Georgia responds. They are obviously a talented team, but their schedule has been weak. And though they haven't had anything even remotely close to a scare, they also haven't been as dominant or terrifying as they should be able to be. This is the toughest opponent they have faced so far, and the second half of the season is tougher than the first. If we don't see them wind things up and play at a higher level in the face of this challenge then we might be right to be concerned heading towards the SEC title game and beyond.

Georgia at LSU Odds and Betting Trends

The game opened with Georgia favored by a touchdown, and a hook has been added as it now sits at 7.5 . Action has been split very evenly between the two, so the movement suggests that sharp money is tilted towards Georgia. The total has been stable since opening at 50.5.

The bulldogs are a strong 19-7 ATS in their last 26 road games and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall. They are 5-2 ATS in their last seven conference games. The Tigers are even stronger, having covered in eight of their last nine in the SEC. They are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 overall. The road team is 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings between these squads.

Georgia at LSU Predictions and Picks

I just don't like this LSU team very much. Burrow is a dud, I don't trust the coaching, and they don't live up to the sum of their parts. Georgia has been strong this year while not yet playing near their huge potential. Giving up more than a touchdown on the road is scary, and Baton Rouge is a tough place to play, but Georgia is the fairly confident play here.

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