2018 Boise State Broncos Season Win Total Picks and Predictions for NCAA Football

2017 Record: 11-3

2018 Las Vegas Season Win Total: 10.0

2018 Season Win Total Picks NCAA Football: 'Over'

The Boise State program was already a juggernaut when Bryan Harsin took over in 2014. But Harsin has to be given some credit for continuing the standard of excellence that Chris Petersen set before he left for Washington. The Broncos have increased their win total each of the past two years, and Harsin enters this fall with potentially his best team yet.

The Broncos are coming off an 11-win campaign and Mountain West cChampionship. But now they have their sights set a bit higher: crashing the College Football Playoff and taking a shot at the Power 5.

Quarterback Brett Rypien enters his fourth year as Boise State's starting quarterback. A two-time all-Mountain West performer, Rypien is a steady hand at the controls. He will have an extremely young receiving corps, though, and Rypien is going to have to raise his level of play if this team wants to meet its goals.

Boise State will lean on leading rusher Alexander Mattison, who managed 1,086 yards and 12 touchdowns last year.

Boise's high-powered offense gets most of the headlines. But the Broncos have consistently been one of the better defenses in the country during their nearly two-decade run. Last year's group was No. 22 in the nation in total defense and welcomes back 10 starters. That includes the entire defensive line and secondary, with four three-year starters providing leadership and experience.

If the Broncos are going to play their way into consideration for the College Football Playoff then they will first need to knock off some teams from major conferences. Last year they lost to Washington State and Virginia in their only regular-season attempts before taking out Oregon in the Las Vegas Bowl. This fall they will have two shots in the opening month, hosting Connecticut before making a trip to Oklahoma State on Sept. 15.

The league schedule sets up very well for the Broncos. They will host their three biggest competitors - San Diego State, Fresno State and Utah State - on the Smurf Turf. A road test at Wyoming at the start of MWC play is an early test. But Boise State should be favored in all nine of its league games.

Boise State has been overvalued. The sportsbooks have set a nearly impossible bar for this program, making it tough to turn a profit betting on this team no matter how good they are. Boise will be favored in all those league games. But those spreads are going to be massively inflated.

This season win total is no exception. The Broncos have to go nearly undefeated to cash this futures ticket. That said, I really think they can do it. Even if they do lose that game in Stillwater, Boise State could still run the table in conference play. They haven't done that since 2009. But the fact that they get their toughest games at home, where they are 58-5 over the last decade, is a huge advantage. I'll take the 'over' here and look for Boise to finish 11-1.

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