2018 Baylor Bears Season Win Total Picks and Predictions for NCAA Football

2017 Record: 1-11

2018 Las Vegas Season Win Total: 5.5

2018 Season Win Total Picks NCAA Football: 'Over'

The good news for the Baylor Bears football team last year was that no one died.

I'm only half joking. The last time that this school saw the complete and total implosion of one of its sports programs it was the basketball team about 15 years ago. And people literally died during one of the worst scandals in college hoops history.

No, instead this implosion was precipitated two years ago by run-of-the-mill sexual assault charges and allegations of a cover-up. When the dust settled, Art Briles was gone and Matt Rhule was left to pick up the pieces after Jim Grobe's cameo season. Rhule's first season was predictably awful, with the Bears going 1-11 last year while reverting back to the generally non-competitive team that they were in the pre-Briles era.

I felt like Rhule was always an odd choice for the Baylor job. He had limited short-term success at Temple, winning 10 games a couple of times. Rhule is also more of a meat-and-potatoes kind of coach. And his grind-and-defend style of football is pretty much the antithesis of everything the defense-optional Big 12 is all about.

Rhule did go 2-10 in his first year at Temple before rebounding with a 6-6 season. He played a lot of youngsters in last season's debacle and could reap the benefits of that experience this season or next. Rhule also picked up some high-level transfers at some key positions, including former Tennessee standout running back Jalen Hurd. And there was optimism to be gleaned from close losses to Oklahoma and West Virginia last year.

That's the good news. The bad news is that I think Baylor is still going to be pretty bad. They were No. 98 in scoring and No. 113 in points allowed last year, getting outscored by nearly 12 points per game. They haven't fully closed that gap.

I don't see six wins on this schedule. They open with three of their first four games at home, with the road game coming against a rebuilding UTSA team. Even if they sweep those four games, which isn't a gimme considering they host a tricky Duke squad, then they would still have to pull two upsets in league play.

Baylor hosts Kansas State and Oklahoma State, two relatively vulnerable teams. They also close the season against Texas Tech in Arlington in what could be a bowl-deciding game for both clubs.

I don't see it happening for the Bears, though. This year will serve more as a measuring stick for Rhule, who is still trying to fully implement his systems on both sides of the ball while shifting the culture of Baylor football further away from the Briles years. Baylor will be better. They will be more competitive. But I think the idea that they will get six wins and go bowling is overly optimistic.

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