Stanford at Oregon College Football Picks and Predictions 9/21/2018

Saturday, September 22, 2018

Autzen Stadium

Get todays College Football Odds & Lines on this game

It is the unstoppable force versus the immovable object when Stanford and Oregon tangle in college football. The Ducks were at the forefront of this century’s revolutionary offensive expansion, with their high-scoring, fast-paced attack laying the foundation for what is now the norm of college offenses. While on the other side, Stanford still plays old school football, relying on a punishing defense and physical running game to beat opponents into submission.

These two strengths will be on full display when No. 7 Stanford travels to No. 20 Oregon on Saturday to play one of the most consequential games of the weekend. These two Top 20 opponents are both undefeated and are two of the favorites to win the Pac-12 North this year. Whoever can leave with this victory will have the inside track as Washington’s primary challenger as we head into the heart of conference play.

Stanford will take on Oregon at 8 p.m. on Saturday, Sept. 22 in Autzen Stadium. The Ducks opened as two-point favorites. But upon hearing that Bryce Love, Stanford’s Heisman-contending running back, would be playing the Cardinal shot up to two-point favorites themselves. The total on this game is set at 56.0.

The majority of the early action is coming down on Stanford, with nearly 70 percent of the early bets on the visiting Cardinal.

Stanford has already staked its claim in the North with a 17-3 win over USC on Sept. 8. They have also had Oregon’s number the past two years, easily beating them 49-7 last year and hammering the Ducks 52-27 in their last visit to Autzen. The Cardinal are also 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings between these two teams and they are on a 5-1 ATS run overall. 

Valuable Stanford Cardinal Betting Trends

Cardinal are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Cardinal are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.

Cardinal are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 games following an ATS loss.

Cardinal are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in September.

Cardinal are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 20.

Important Oregon Ducks Betting Trends

Ducks are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 conference games.

Ducks are 8-21-1 ATS in their last 30 games overall.

Ducks are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up win.

Ducks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in September.

Ducks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games.

Ducks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games on field turf.

Key Stanford Cardinal Injuries

09/16/18 S Brandon Simmons Undisclosed is questionable Saturday vs Oregon
09/16/18 WR Connor Wedington Undisclosed is questionable Saturday vs Oregon
09/16/18 LB Curtis Robinson Undisclosed is questionable Saturday vs Oregon
09/16/18 LB Jordan Perez Undisclosed is questionable Saturday vs Oregon
09/16/18 OL Walker Little Undisclosed is questionable Saturday vs Oregon
09/12/18 OL Foster Sarell Leg is out indefinitely
09/11/18 RB Bryce Love Knee is questionable

Key Oregon Ducks Injuries

09/16/18 K Adam Stack Leg is probable Saturday vs Stanford
09/16/18 QB Braxton Burmeister Knee is out indefinitely
09/16/18 WR Brenden Schooler Concussion injured last game, is questionable Saturday vs Stanford
09/16/18 OL Penei Sewell Ankle injured last game, is questionable Saturday vs Stanford
09/13/18 WR Jalen Hall Dismissed has been dismissed
09/04/18 TE Cam McCormick Foot is out for season

Useful Offensive Statistics

The Ducks aren’t putting up record-setting offensive numbers at breakneck pace like they were in the heyday of the last decade. But this is still a formidable Quack Attack. Oregon is averaging 503 yards per game and, most importantly, they are turning those yards into points. The Ducks are No. 8 in the nation with 51.7 points per game despite not being in the Top 30 nationally in either rushing or passing. Oregon has done well to find balance in their offense, posting 289 passing yards and 214 rushing yards per game.

Defensive Statistics

This is the side of the ball that the Ducks have made the most improvement. Last year Oregon was hamstrung by a defense that was No. 81 in scoring and No. 89 against the pass. Stop, especially in conference play, were tough to come by. But the Ducks have started this season No. 43 in points allowed (20.0) and are in the Top 30 in both total defense (No. 30) and rushing defense (No. 10).

Useful Offensive Statistics

Stanford’s deliberate style means that they are never going to put up monster numbers on this side of the ball. But they’ve gotten off to a really slow start even by their modest standards. Last season the Cardinal averaged 32.4 points per game, No. 38 in the nation, and they were cranking out 202.4 rushing yards per game (No. 30). This season Stanford has seen the scoring dip to 26 per game (No. 97) and the rushing yards cut almost in half to 115.3 (No. 113). Stanford’s 358.3 total yards per game rate them just No. 103 in the country.

Defensive Statistics

Statistically, the Cardinal have the best defense in the country. The Cardinals have allowed just 7.7 points per game so far this season (No. 1) even though they are outside the Top 20 in total defense, passing defense and rushing yards. And those numbers haven’t been earned against cupcakes. The Cardinal shut down USC (3 points) and San Diego State (10 points), two bowl teams from a year ago.

Who will win tonight's Cardinal/Ducks college football game against the spread?

Robert's Pick: Take Stanford -2.5

This won’t be a game that I’m laying any action on. The public is all over Stanford, which has proven itself early this season with those wins over San Diego State and USC. Oregon, in the meantime, has played a bunch of schlubs. The fact that the Ducks are 0-3 against the spread against the lightweight opponents they’ve faced is telling that this team may not be as good as people think they are. Oregon allowed 22 points last week to San Jose State, for example, and only beat the Spartans by 13 as a 43-point home favorite.

I try not to make a habit of laying points on the road in games featuring Top 20 teams. And I think that the best value in this game would be on playing the ‘over’. Stanford isn’t going to continue to allow fewer than 10 points per game. And Oregon’s defense isn’t going to stay in the Top 10 against the run. I can see both teams putting points on the board.

But if I had to pick a winner I would go with Stanford. Their offensive numbers have been depressed because Love hasn’t been 100 percent. But if he’s healthy will be a handful for Oregon to deal with. Also, the Ducks are just 6-13 ATS in their last 19 conference games and 8-22 ATS in their last 30 games overall. So this team has a lot to prove before I’d be willing to back them in a big spot like this.

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