LSU at Auburn College Football Picks and Predictions 9/15/2018

Saturday, September 15, 2018

Jordan-Hare Stadium

Get todays College Football Odds & Lines on this game

College football’s opening two weeks have featured a handful of consequential nonconference games and a whole lot of power teams hammering overmatched opponents. But now in Week 3 teams are starting to settle in and gear up for the start of the defining portion of the college football schedule: conference play.

This week all eyes will be in the SEC where one of the biggest games in the West Division takes place between No. 13 LSU and No. 7 Auburn. These two will kick off their crucial matchup at 3:30 p.m. on Saturday, Sept. 18. Auburn has been installed as a healthy 9.5-point favorite. But early betting reports show that nearly 60 percent of wagers have come in on LSU. The total on this game is set at 45.0.

Both teams have been among the nation’s best in this young season, with LSU hammering Miami and Auburn handling Washington for two of the biggest nonconference wins of the season thus far. This is also a major revenge game for Auburn. Auburn was up 20-0 on the road last year before completely unraveling in the second half, eventually falling 27-23. Auburn quarterback Jarrett Stidham had one of the worst games of his career, going 9-for-26 and helping give that game away.

Valuable LSU Tigers Betting Trends

Tigers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 conference games.

Tigers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning record.

Tigers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games.

Tigers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall.

Tigers are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.

Tigers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.

Important Auburn Tigers Betting Trends

Tigers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring more than 40 points

Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games.

Tigers are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a win of more than 20 points.

Tigers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.

The Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Auburn.

The home team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

The Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 times hosting LSU.

Key LSU Tigers Injuries

09/09/18 S Eric Monroe Undisclosed is questionable Saturday vs Auburn
09/09/18 CB Jontre Kirklin Undisclosed is questionable Saturday vs Auburn
09/09/18 LB Michael Divinity Jr. Undisclosed is questionable Saturday vs Auburn
09/09/18 OL Saahdiq Charles Undisclosed is upgraded to probable Saturday vs Auburn
09/09/18 TE Thaddeus Moss Leg is questionable Saturday vs Auburn
09/09/18 S Todd Harris Jr. Undisclosed is questionable Saturday vs Auburn
09/09/18 FB Tory Carter Undisclosed is questionable Saturday vs Auburn
09/04/18 LB K'Lavon Chaisson Leg is out for season
09/03/18 OL Adrian Magee Knee is out indefinitely
08/18/18 WR Drake Davis Legal problems is out indefinitely
08/08/18 LB Tyler Taylor Suspension is out indefinitely
08/04/18 OL Ed Ingram Suspension is out indefinitely

Key Auburn Tigers Injuries

09/09/18 DB Javaris Davis Undisclosed is questionable Saturday vs LSU

Useful Offensive Statistics

The Tigers have relied on their defense to generate points and support their offense through the first two weeks of the season. New quarterback Joe Burrow has been an upgrade under center from what LSU has seen the past two years. But the offense is still very much a work in progress. LSU has averaged just 315 yards per game, No. 113, and they are No. 114 in the nation in passing yards with 145.5 yards per game. LSU ran just 15 plays (for 78 yards) in the second half of their 31-0 win over SE Louisiana last week.

Defensive Statistics

LSU is coming off a shutout win over Southeast Louisiana State and their 17 points allowed through two games is No. 10 in the country. Like Auburn, LSU has been dominating with their front seven, surrendering just 148 rushing yards in two games. In fact, both teams have eerily similar defensive statistics through their first two outings and are nearly even in everything besides points allowed (Auburn: 12.5, LSU: 8.5). LSU defensive coordinator Dave Aranada is one of the best in the sport and should have a solid game plan for Auburn this week.

Useful Offensive Statistics

Auburn’s offense has been averaging nearly 500 yards per game in their first two outings. Stidham was voted as the all-SEC second team quarterback this preseason. But he has taken a back seat to the running game. Auburn is averaging just 205.5 passing yards per game (No. 85) while grinding out 288 yards per game on the ground. Their 42.0 points per game has them in the Top 30 nationally.

Defensive Statistics

Defensively, Auburn leans on one of the best defensive front fours in the country. The Tigers have allowed just 25 points in their two games and have surrendered just 149 rushing yards in those two outings. Auburn is No. 35 in the country in total defense and No. 23 in scoring defense.

Who will win tonight's Auburn/LSU college football game against the spread?

Robert's Pick: Take Auburn -9.5

The home team has absolutely dominated this series, winning five straight and eight of the last nine meetings between these two. The home team is also an outstanding 8-1 against the spread in those nine games and is 16-2 straight up dating back to 2000. Despite the talent on both sides of the field this series really hasn’t featured many close games. The average margin of victory over the last 10 years is 15.1 points per game and three of the last nine meetings have been decided by less than one score. When you put it into that context laying out nearly 10 points doesn’t seem like such a stretch. Auburn is the better team, playing at home, with revenge. I think that historical norms will hold in this one and I think that Auburn will make up for last year’s loss with a blowout home win here.

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