2014 Independence Bowl Picks: Miami vs. South Carolina Odds and Expert Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 12/15/2014
Saturday, Dec. 27, 3:30 p.m. ET - Independence Stadium, Shreveport, Louisiana
I normally don't acknowledge the title sponsors of bowl games unless I have to, but I can't overlook it here. The company that opened their wallet most is none other than Duck Commander - the endlessly classy organization featured in Duck Dynasty. You can be sure that there is going to be an extra dose of unwatchable ridiculousness surrounding the pageantry of this game - and some really awkward references from the commentators. We've seen some ridiculous bowl sponsors over the years, but this might just take the cake.
On the plus side, at least Willie and his clan will potentially give us something to watch and talk about surrounding this game. Aside from that, this isn't exactly an elite matchup. Both teams are coming off wildly-disappointing seasons that were far below expectations. Neither team is particularly fun to watch, and there is no rivalry to fire things up. There will be a lot of good bowl games this year, but there is a good chance that this won't be one of them.
Independence Bowl: Miami vs. South Carolina Storylines
There have been few teams this year that were more disappointing than the Gamecocks. They came into the season favored to win the SEC East, and many even had bigger expectations for them. They were blown out by Texas A&M - not exactly a great team this year either, as it turned out - in the opener, and they were 4-5 and reeling by Nov.1. The 6-6 record is dismal, but it's even worse when you consider that three of the wins were against East Carolina, Furman and South Alabama - hardly power squads. This has not been an ideal year for Steve Spurrier and company. The last couple of weeks have not been any better. Spurrier put on the full-court press trying to bring in former Florida head coach Will Muschamp as defensive coordinator, but they were outbid by Auburn. Spurrier also commented that he was planning to stick around for two or three more years - a wishy-washy statement that opposing coaches are hammering in negative recruiting. It all adds up to more negativity and distractions for a team that has already had no shortage of them this year.
In a game decidedly short of star power, the biggest name here is Miami running back Duke Johnson. The junior is already the school's all-time rushing leader, and this is very likely his last game before he declares for the NFL Draft. He's an outstanding back behind a solid offensive line. South Carolina is, to be kind, awful against the run. Their 214.4 yards allowed per game is 108th in the country - hence the desperation to hire Muschamp. Needless to say, this is a very favorable matchup for the Hurricanes.
While Miami can run, they have an offense that isn't exactly explosive. They can score points, but they don't do it in a real hurry for the most part. Because they tend to be more methodical, they are very reliant on possession time in their wins. Georgia Tech and other opponents were able to keep the ball away for Miami, and their wins were reasonably easy as a result. When the Hurricanes won they averaged 39.3 points per game and gave up just 16.2. When they lost, though, they averaged just 20.5 points and gave up 32.5. In short, this team needs to control the tempo and texture of the game to come out on top. Like South Carolina, though, Miami also were victims of their schedule - they lost to the better teams they played, and feasted on some weaklings to get to bowl eligibility.
Independence Bowl: Miami vs. South Carolina Betting Odds and Trends
The game opened as a pick'em but quickly moved to where it is now - with Miami favored by three points. Only a slight majority of action has been on the Hurricanes, so the movement to the key number of three is a good indication that sharp money has hit the Hurricanes hard in early betting action. The total sits at 61.
Miami is 0-4 ATS in their last four neutral-site games and 1-5 ATS in their last six December games. They are just 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games overall. South Carolina is just 2-6 ATS in their last eight neutral-site games, but they have gone 4-1 ATS in their last five games against ACC foes.
2014 Independence Bowl Picks: Miami vs. South Carolina Expert Betting Predictions
I'd be a lot more comfortable in this game if the Hurricanes hadn't lost their last three games - Florida State was a decent loss, but the last two to Virginia and Pittsburgh were pretty ugly. Still, I have to take the Hurricanes. The huge advantage in the running game alone is enough to put me on their side. It also helps that Al Golden has been given an endorsement for another season. This will not be a pretty or memorable game, but the Hurricanes have the solid edge.
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