Saturday, Dec. 27, 8 p.m. ET - Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego

At some points in time this would have been an all-time great matchup. Both programs are proud and historic. Neither is at their peak now - not by any means. They aren't horrible or embarrassing, but no one took them seriously on a national level heading into the season, and they did nothing to change that throughout the year. That's not to say that this doesn't have the makings of a good matchup - or at least an interesting one. It would just be even better if both of these teams hadn't fallen on hard times relative to their peaks.

Holiday Bowl: Nebraska vs. USC Storylines

The biggest, most obvious story here is the absence of Bo Pelini. It's not too often that a coach gets fired before a bowl game when he has gone 9-3, but Pelini had done enough to test the patience of the school's administration without showing real upside that he was seen as expendable. Barney Cotton, the associate head coach and tight end coach, will be in charge during the bowl game. He fills one of the least enviable positions in sport - the doomed interim coach. Oregon State's Mike Riley was, shockingly, quickly hired to take over for Pelini. He will have no involvement in this game, but he is in Lincoln preparing for next season - and likely hiring replacements for several of the coaches charged with preparing for this bowl game. Awkward. It's always tough for players to focus on the task at hand when a very different future is so close and when they have to listen to coaches who will soon have no authority over them.

USC's defense against the run is, well, mediocre. Their 132.5 yards per game allowed ranks 27th in the country. Neither a liability nor a big asset. That's particularly relevant here because Nebraska running back Ameer Abdullah may be the best offensive player in the game - and one of the best in the country. He had 1,523 yards on the ground, and that was despite missing most of a game due to injury. He eclipsed the 200-yard barrier four times this year - though not once since Oct. 25, which is the week before he was injured. To win, Nebraska needs to establish the run early, and the senior needs to have a very good day. Your confidence in their ability to do so will do a lot to determine how you are going to bet on this game. Unfortunately, Nebraska is not likely going to be particularly effective against USC's biggest liability - the Trojans can be shredded through the air, but Nebraska has a weak passing game.

Nebraska's pass defense is ranked the same as Nebraska's rush defense - 27th in the country. USC has a Top-15 passing offense, and junior Cody Kessler has had an excellent season. He completed more than 70 percent of his passes for 3,505 yards and has 36 touchdowns and a measly four interceptions. It was a great year, though not a consistent one - he had four games that were not great. It's going to be a big challenge for Nebraska to contain Kessler - though Stanford, Arizona, Arizona State, and UCLA all did it reasonably effectively, and USC was just 2-2 in those games.

If you put a lot of faith into the importance of how teams finished their season then USC has an edge here. They won three of their last four, capping things off with a total annihilation of bitter rival Notre Dame. The one loss was a lopsided and concerning affair against UCLA, but they rebounded well and showed more good than bad over the stretch. Nebraska, meanwhile, had a rough time in their last three - a final nail in Pelini's coffin. They were crushed by Wisconsin, lost to Minnesota at home, and needed overtime to beat an underwhelming Iowa team. Even if they were otherwise at their best, Nebraska would be limping into this one. Obviously, though, they are far from their best.

Holiday Bowl: Nebraska vs. USC Betting Odds and Trends

The game opened with USC favored by 5.5 points, and that has since slid up to 6.5 points. Nearly 90 percent of all bets have been on USC, so the line movement isn't surprising - and it wouldn't be surprising to see the game move through the key number of seven, either. The total sits at 61.5.

Nebraska has covered their last six spreads in games played on grass but is 0-4 ATS in their last four against the Pac-12 and just 1-4 ATS in their last five neutral-site games. They have gone "under" the total in six of their last seven bowl games. The under has gone 7-0-1 in USC's last eight December games. The Trojans are 5-1 ATS in their last six bowl games and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 against the Big Ten.

2014 Holiday Bowl Picks: Nebraska vs. USC Expert Betting Predictions

I really do not like being on the same side as such an overwhelming percentage of bettors in a game, but I have no choice here. I don't trust the Huskers in this one. Their mental state will be questionable at best, their pass defense is going to have issues, they have not played well against strong opponents, and USC has played a stronger schedule. Add is all up and USC has a significant advantage. If you can get them while giving up less than a touchdown then you have no choice but to do it.

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