Auburn Tigers at Alabama Crimson Tide, Saturday Nov. 29, 7:45 p.m. ET

This great rivalry was on track to be the game of the year. Unfortunately, Auburn blew that when they lost to Texas A&M three games back, then they lost again at Georgia the next week. Now at 8-3 all they have left to play for is pride and a better bowl assignment. They do have one big prize available, though - the chance to spoil things for their most hated foe. Alabama simply cannot afford to lose here. Win and they are just a victory in the SEC Championship Game away from the playoff. Lose, though, and it's all over. Well, technically it is an exaggeration to say it is all over - if Ole Miss beats Mississippi State then Alabama would still win the division whether they win or lose, but they would need three or four miracles to qualify for the playoff.

Both teams will be plenty motivated here - not that motivation has ever been an issue in this rivalry.

Auburn at Alabama Betting Storylines

Last year Auburn won this game en route to their National Championship Game loss to Florida State. It's how they won it that was the thing of legends - Alabama missed a field goal, and Chris Davis returned the ball 108 yards for a soul-crushing - and game-winning - touchdown. That outcome will have little direct bearing here - that was a long time ago, and these teams are both experienced and well-coached. That game, and the Iron Bowl rivalry in general, will however have a big impact on how the public bets on this one. In general, the more intense a rivalry is, the less rational the betting public is when it comes to handicapping it.

The single biggest concern here - and it's not even close - is Auburn's defense. They were able to limit Samford to seven points last week, but they win no awards for that. In the five games before that they had allowed an average of 35.8 points per game. Now that was against five of the better teams in the SEC, but it is still the SEC, so we aren't talking about the most explosive of offenses. They lost three of five of those games to totally derail their season, and they covered just one spread. Now they have to line up across from an offense that hasn't been consistent but which has some real explosiveness and creativity to offer under the direction of Lane Kiffin. It's not the best offense in the country by any means, but it is more than good enough to exploit the ridiculousness weakness that Auburn has exhibited over the last six weeks. Simply put, if Auburn can't get back on track defensively then they stand no chance in this one.

Alabama got a scare last time out when stud receiver Amari Cooper went down with what looked like a knee injury. Reports coming from the Alabama camp -- including from Nick Saban himself in a press conference - are that it was just a bruise, that he could have come back last week if needed, and that he will be fine in this game. He's a key component of what isn't a very deep receiving corps, so his absence would have been significant.

There is a classic strength-against-strength matching looming when Auburn has the ball. They have the ninth-ranked running game in the country, amassing 267 yards per game. Their passing game is entirely underwhelming, so the team lives and dies on the ground. Alabama has the second-best run defense in the country, allowing just 85 yards per game. It goes without saying that both teams can't do what they have been doing all year in the same game, so the team that gets and edge here is going to have a big edge in the pursuit of a win.

Auburn Tigers at Alabama Crimson Tide NCAA Football Odds and Betting Trends

The game opened with Alabama favored by nine points, and that has quickly jumped to 9.5. About 70 percent of bets have been placed on the Crimson Tide, so the line movement is consistent with expectations. The total opened at 53.5.

The Tigers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games and 0-5 ATS in their last five on grass. The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven Iron Bowls. The "over" is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings overall, but six of the last seven games played at Alabama have gone "under" the total.

Auburn Tigers at Alabama Crimson Tide Expert Predictions and Picks

I'm not crazy about the price, but I have no choice but to take the Tide. I don't expect this one to be particularly close. Alabama is going to be able to move the ball freely on offense, and I expect that Auburn will struggle to run the ball - and therefore to have anything resembling an offense. Auburn would not have covered this same spread in their games at Mississippi State and Georgia, and Alabama is a much better team than either of those. Alabama is the pick.

Doc's Sports has been a leader in college football handicapping for more than four decades, and we are offering new clients $60 in free college football picks from Doc's Sports or any Advisory Board handicapper of your choosing. Click here to get your no-obligation $60 in picks now. Also, get three handicappers for the price of one when you sign up for a full-season football package! Click Here for details.

Read more articles by Trevor Whenham