Arizona Wildcats vs. Oregon Ducks, Friday Dec. 5, 9 p.m. ET

Over the last three years, coach Rich Rodriguez has proven that his struggles at Michigan were at least as much the fault of the school as his own. In a more unified, less self-obsessed environment at Arizona he has worked wonders, turning an also-ran into a division champion in just three years. Now he gets the chance for the ultimate crowning achievement - winning a conference title and sending the playoff hopes of the Ducks crashing to the ground as well.

It seems unlikely given how strong they have been, but Oregon has only won the Pac-12 Championship once - in the inaugural 2011 edition - and hasn't played in the game since. Now that they get another shot, they can't afford to blow it - not if they want the rest of their season to mean anything.

Arizona vs. Oregon Betting Storylines

This game not only features the two division winners but also all the winners of Pac-12 major hardware. Rich Rodriguez was named Pac-12 Coach of the Year on Tuesday - the same day that his successor at Michigan, Brady Hoke, was fired. Arizona wasn't done there - linebacker Scooby Wright was named Defensive Player of the Year. To the surprise of no one, Oregon QB Marcus Mariota won his first of likely many awards this year, including the one that matters more than any other and is awarded next weekend, when he was named Offensive Player of the Year. It was a crazy and tumultuous season in the conference - or at least in one division - but it is hard to argue that this isn't the matchup that we should be seeing here.

Rodriguez has something else going for him here besides the hardware - he is in the heads of this Oregon team. He has beat them twice in a row. The first time was just plain shocking. The second was a bit less surprising because we had seen it before, but Arizona was still on the road and an underdog of more than three touchdowns, so you can hardly say that you knew it was going to happen all along. The question for bettors here, then, is whether the Wildcats can keep the magic going here.

The biggest thing that has stood out in the first two games is that Arizona has simply wanted it more. That seems stunning to say when the losses have hurt Oregon's shot at a national title both times, but that is definitely the case. It is tough to believe that that will be the case again this time around. Oregon has to have revenge on their minds, and they also have a spot in the inaugural College Football Playoff guaranteed to them if they win here. A loss, meanwhile, would be fatal. If Oregon isn't absolutely burning to win this one then there are massive issues, and if they want it badly enough it gets tougher to imagine them not getting it.

The huge story heading into Arizona's showdown for the division with Arizona State last weekend was the status of QB Anu Solomon He was injured and deemed unlikely to play, and oddsmakers long resisted setting a line to see what would become of him. In the end it all felt like a smokescreen. He played in the game after all, and he looked pretty good doing it - 15 of 21 for 208 yards and two touchdowns. Bettors can't let his status be a distraction heading into this one. Besides, while he is very good, and he had a strong day against Oregon earlier this year, he is unquestionably the second-best QB in this game - by a wide margin.

Arizona Wildcats vs. Oregon Ducks NCAA Football Pac-12 Championship Game Odds and Betting Trends

The game opened with Oregon favored by 13.5, and it has stayed steady at that level. The Ducks have enjoyed a solid majority of the support, so things could climb upwards, though it is unlikely that it will go significantly higher because the key number of 14 is involved. It's noteworthy that Oregon was favored by 21.5 points at home the last time they met, and 20.5 points in Arizona last year, so the public and oddsmakers estimation of the Wildcats has improved significantly. The total is set very high at 72.5.

The underdog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings between these teams. The Ducks are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall and 5-0 ATS in their last five against teams with winning records. The Wildcats are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games played on grass.

Arizona Wildcats vs. Oregon Ducks Pac-12 Championship Expert Predictions and Picks

I really respect Rodriguez and Arizona and give them a decent chance in this one. As much as I would like to, though, I can't pick them. Oregon is the better, more talented team, and they are getting a second look at a team in the same year. They are highly-motivated and on a neutral field. Being able to bet on them at less than two touchdowns here is significant, and that represents enough value to pull the trigger. Oregon is the bet.

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Read more articles by Trevor Whenham