Free Expert NCAA Football Picks: Arizona State Sun Devils at Arizona Wildcats Odds
by Trevor Whenham - 11/27/2014
Arizona State Sun Devils at Arizona Wildcats, Friday Nov. 28, 3:30 p.m. ET
This is a good rivalry game - and better now than it has been in a long while because both teams are actually relevant at the same time. It's also a simultaneously thrilling and frustrating spot for the teams.
The winner of this one will wind up 7-2 in the conference, which gives them no worse than a share of the division crown. The problem is that neither one controls its own destiny. UCLA will have the same record if they can beat Stanford - in a game that kicks off at the same time as this one - and since the Bruins ran the table against the Arizona teams it's the Bruins that would advance to the Pac-12 Championship Game.
Fans of these teams, then, will not only have to cheer for their own squad to succeed but also for Stanford to remember how to score again and come out on top.
It's not like the conference title is all that is on the line here. In some ways these teams would perhaps be better off with a win and a UCLA win. If that happens then they avoid the prospect of a likely loss to Oregon in the title game. They would get to be a two-loss team that ended their season with a strong win and a spot in the Top 10. That seems like the formula for a Fiesta Bowl team to me. That's a better fate than a three-loss team that got beaten up by Oregon would wind up with.
Arizona State at Arizona Betting Storylines
An odd unifying feature of this game is that both head coaches have been in the discussion for the now open Florida job. I'm not betting that either Rich Rodriguez or Todd Graham will get it, but the speculation adds some flavor to the game - and some potential for distraction. Of course, Todd Graham starts looking for his next job before the press conference that introduces him in his current one, so this speculation is something the Sun Devils will be braced for.
Arizona State is expected to get a boost on offense as Jaelen Strong, one of the country's top receivers, is expected back. He went down with a concussion two games back. Last week he warmed up before the game but was ruled out by kickoff. He should be ready here, though. In a game that could easily be a shootout, that is a big plus for the Sun Devils.
You can break this game down however you want, but what is most striking is how similar these bitter rivals are in so many ways. Both teams are 9-2, and both lost to UCLA. ASU is averaging 6.1 yards per play on offense. Arizona averages 6.0. ASU passes for 277 yards per game. Arizona is at 299. The Sun Devils run 39 times per game, while the Wildcats carry it 41 times. Arizona completes 57.4 percent of their passes. Arizona State is at 59.1. Arizona averages 36.2 points per game - one less than Arizona State. Arizona State allows 26.4 points per game, while Arizona gives up 24.6. There are some key differences - Taylor Kelly is a redshirt senior while Anu Solomon is a redshirt freshman, for example - but this is one of the most evenly-matched Territorial Cups we have ever seen. It's going to all come down to two things - coaching and execution.
Speaking of Solomon, Arizona's star quarterback is a key player you need to keep an eye on leading into this game. He was hurt in the first half of last week's game against Utah and spent the second half standing on the sideline in a walking cast. It wasn't a new injury - his ankle has been a long way from right for a few weeks now. Jesse Scroggins stepped in and played the second half and looked good - though by that time the demoralized Utes had all but given up.
Solomon's status is still unclear, but he is listed as "questionable," and it seems increasingly unlikely that he will play. Las Vegas gave us a clear insight into just how important Solomon is to this team. The initial line in this game was going to be Arizona -4.5, and that would have been available Sunday or early Monday at the latest. Because of the uncertainty about Solomon, though - and the team's unwillingness to talk about his status - the line wasn't released until later on Wednesday - very late for a Friday game like this. It was set at -2.5, so a healthy Solomon is worth two points. If Scroggins, who started his career at USC before junior college and now Arizona, has to start this game as now seems likely then that is a real concern.
Arizona State Sun Devils at Arizona Wildcats NCAA Football Odds and Betting Trends
The Wildcats opened as 2.5-point favorites. Because the line was posted so late, and so close to the Thanksgiving holiday, it will be tough to draw any meaningful conclusions from line movement here. The total is set at 62.5.
The underdog is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 editions of the Territorial Cup. The Sun Devils are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings and 5-2 ATS the last seven times they have played at Arizona. Arizona is 0-5 ATS in their last five home games and 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.
Arizona State Sun Devils at Arizona Wildcats Expert Predictions and Picks
Scroggins was highly-touted out of high school, but he has matured and is in his second year in this system. I'd much rather have Solomon in charge, but I like the Wildcats at home in this one, and I lean towards taking them anyway - especially now that they are giving up less than the key number of three. I would also lean towards the "over" - both teams definitely favor offense over defense, and both coaches are creative and competitive, so they will pull out all of the stops in this one.
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