Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Missouri Tigers, Saturday Dec. 6, 4 p.m. ET

Like every other Power 5 conference championship game, the storyline here in the SEC Championship is that one team is trying to keep their playoff chances alive, while the other is trying to play spoiler. Alabama rebounded well from an earlier setback this season to climb back to the top of the College Football Playoff pile, but they likely aren't strong enough to stay in the mix with a second loss - not unless they get a whole lot of help. They need to win to have a shot to add more hardware to their already-overflowing trophy case.

Missouri likely isn't going to the playoff no matter what happens, but they can play spoiler. They can also defend the honor of the maligned SEC East. It's remarkable given the doubt that accompanied Missouri's inclusion in the SEC that in just their third year in the conference they are playing in their second straight conference championship. They were beaten by Auburn last year but weren't embarrassed.

Alabama vs. Missouri Betting Storylines

If Missouri wants to pull off the upset here they need to be able to disrupt Blake Sims early and often. If the Alabama quarterback is able to play to his full ability then it could get ugly. Fortunately, Missouri is better equipped than many to give Sims issues. They have two of the better pass rushers in the SEC on their line - Shane Ray leads the SEC in sacks with 12, and Markus Golden isn't too far behind at 8.5. Alabama has had some depth issues all year on the offensive line, and now left tackle Cam Robinson has a shoulder injury that could limit him - or worse - for this one. Nick Saban could lose some sleep about this scenario.

Another major concern for the Crimson Tide is the defensive debacle they survived last week against Auburn. They allowed 630 yards of offense - more than they ever had as a program. A total of 456 of those yards were through the air. It was ugly and showed real areas of vulnerability - especially in the secondary. The good news for the Tide, though, is that the Tigers cannot easily be mistaken for a strong, explosive offense. Their average of 189.9 passing yards per game ranks just 100th in the country, and though Maty Mauk has had some bright spots along the way - like a strong 265-yard outing against Arkansas' solid defense last week - he is not the easiest guy to trust when the chips are down.

We don't often talk about performance against the spread in these previews - at least not this early on - but it is important to do so here. Alabama is among the most public teams in the entire country right now. Their long string of success has made them a near automatic pick in most situations for most casual bettors. Oddsmakers can take advantage of that, and that combined with a team that perhaps hasn't been quite as consistently dominant as in past years, has led to a squad that has struggled to cover spreads. They are just 4-8 ATS on the season, and have not covered two spreads in a row all year - a concern since they covered last week against Auburn. Missouri is a team that few know much about, and fewer care about, so the Tide will get the huge chunk of casual action in this always high-profile game. The Tigers are a much more solid 8-4 ATS, and they have covered their last four spreads and are 5-1 ATS this year as underdogs. ATS performance is by no means something to entirely base a decision on here. If the game is close in your eyes, though, the impact of public perception on where the lines were set and where value could be as a result is important to factor in, though.

Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Missouri Tigers NCAA Football Odds and Betting Trends

The game opened with the Tide favored by 14.5 points. Public action is significantly tilted toward Alabama as expected, so it would be a re4al surprise to see the number fall to the key number of 14 or lower. The total opened at 49.5.

The "over" for the Crimson Tide is 10-1-1 in their last 12 games played on a neutral field. The Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last four following a straight up win. The Tide are 0-4 ATS in their last four following an ATS win.

Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Missouri Tigers Expert Predictions and Picks

I am not crazy about this game from a betting perspective. Alabama is vulnerable, but I am not convinced at all that Missouri is the team to exploit the weakness. Still, this line is higher than it should be by a fair bit, so in the search for value I have no choice but to take the Tigers and the points. This will not be my biggest play of the weekend by any means, though.

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Read more articles by Trevor Whenham