Saturday, September 20, 2014

Memorial Stadium in Champaign

For Updated Odds on This Game Click Here

Illinois finds themselves two touchdown favorites in their last tuneup before delving into the Big Ten schedule but the Fighting Illini fans have learned to not take any team for granted, especially how the 2014 season has played out. Texas State has to be under the mindset of 'why not us' after getting strong early season play from dual-threat QB Tyler Jones.

Texas State played Navy well last week but ultimately couldn't stop the attacking Midshipmen ground attack and fell 35-21. Navy was able to amass 352 yards rushing and 469 total yards despite playing without injured starting QB Keenan Reynolds. The close game was still a disappointing loss for the Bobcats after starting off the year with a dominant 65-0 win over Arkansas Pine Bluff. Texas State QB Jones was dominant in that season opening victory, completing 21 of 25 passes for 278 yards and 4 TD and is completing 73.8% of his passes on this young season. Either way a win over the Illini comes down to stopping the run as the Texas State defense that allows 239.5 YPG is the 13th worst in the nation.

Even if Texas State manages to ground the Illini rushing attack, they must still contend with a passing arsenal that is 14th in the nation at 340 YPG led by Oklahoma State transfer Wes Lunt. The sophomore is 11th in the country with 971 pass yards and has tossed 9 TD's which ties him for 6th in the FBS. One thing the Illini like to do is throw the deep ball, evidenced by 8 pass plays of 30 yards or more already on this young season. The Illini have needed an aerial attack in order to post comeback wins against both Youngstown State and Western Kentucky, teams that might be considered inferior opponents. There was no comeback a week ago as Illinois got straight up whooped out in Washington.

Wins are wins for an Illini team that has posted just 6 of them over two years. Going 3-1 before entering conference play would be a great start for embattled coach Tim Beckman but don't expect Texas State to go down without a fight. The Bobcats saw an MVFC team have Illinois on the ropes for three quarters and would love nothing more to get their ground game churning to keep the Lunt and the Illinois offense on the sidelines.

Texas State Bobcats Betting Trends

Texas State Bobcats are 1-1-0 Against the Spread

Texas State Bobcats are 1-0-0 against the Over/Under

Illinois Fighting Illini Betting Trends

Illinois Fighting Illini are 1-2-0 Against the Spread

Illinois Fighting Illini are 1-2-0 against the Over/Under

Injuries to Watch

Texas State Bobcats

No injuries to report at this time

Illinois Fighting Illini

09/14/14 DB Darwyn Kelly Undisclosed questionable Saturday vs. Texas State
09/14/14 WR Dionte Taylor Undisclosed questionable Saturday vs. Texas State
09/14/14 DE Kenny Nelson Undisclosed questionable Saturday vs. Texas State
09/14/14 OL Pat Flavin Ankle questionable Saturday vs. Texas State
09/14/14 DL Paul James III Undisclosed questionable Saturday vs. Texas State
09/14/14 OL Scott McDowell Undisclosed questionable Saturday vs. Texas State
09/13/14 OL Jake Angona Undisclosed out for season
09/13/14 LB Sean White Undisclosed out for season
08/08/14 LB Mike Svetina Foot out indefinitely

Tony's Pick: Take Illinois

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