Saturday, September 27, 2014

Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge

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New Mexico St. is 2-2 on the year, but not many people give them much of a chance to head into Tiger Stadium to capture the upset win. LSU (3-1) is six TD favorites over the Aggies but must avoid looking ahead to next Saturday night's big tilt with Auburn.

New Mexico State started off their season nice, winning 28-10 over Cal-Poly followed by a 34-31 edging out over Georgia State. Since then though, the Aggies have dropped two in a row largely in part to defensive woes. UTEP scored a 42-24 win two weeks ago while New Mexico squeaked out a 38-35 win last game. New Mexico State gave up over 340 yards rushing in each of the last two games which has pushed their season totals to 299.3 YPG allowed, third worst in the entire country.

Compounding things for the Aggies is the fact that they'll be facing an angry LSU squad coming off a 34-29 upset loss at the hands of Mississippi State a week ago. The vaunted Tigers defense allowed 570 yards to the undefeated Bulldogs team, including 373 and 3 TD total to dynamic Mississippi State QB Dak Prescott. New Mexico State QB Tyler Rogers doesn't have the running ability like Prescott, but he has thrown for 1,056 yards this season, which is 20th in the country. Those numbers could dwindle though facing LSU's 8th best passing defense, yielding only 137.8 YPG.

The Tigers will be able to run on New Mexico State and LSU RB's Kenny Hilliard and Leonard Fournette should have big days. New Mexico State does have a passing attack that could sneak up on LSU though, especially if they're caught looking too far ahead towards next week's game with #5 Auburn.

New Mexico State Aggies Betting Trends

New Mexico State Aggies are 3-1-0 Against the Spread

New Mexico State Aggies are 3-1-0 against the Over/Under

LSU Tigers Betting Trends

LSU Tigers are 3-1-0 Against the Spread

LSU Tigers are 2-1-0 against the Over/Under

Injuries to Watch

New Mexico State Aggies

09/13/14 OL Thomas McGwire Ankle "?" Saturday vs. New Mexico

LSU Tigers

09/21/14 QB Anthony Jennings Undisclosed injured last game, "?" Saturday vs. New Mexico State
09/10/14 DL Travonte Valentine Eligibility out indefinitely
09/10/14 DL Trey Lealaimatafao Undisclosed out indefinitely
09/05/14 Backup QB Jared Foster Foot out for season

Guy's Pick: Take LSU

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