Free College Football Picks: Maryland at Florida State Odds and Predictions

The storyline for the Seminoles was supposed to be simple heading into the season. They had a laughable schedule, so all they had to do was take care of relatively straightforward slate of games until their Oct. 19 meeting with Clemson that seems all but certain to decide the ACC Atlantic Champion and for the winner to become the strong favorite to win the ACC. While the Seminoles have certainly done their part so far, there is a slightly larger hurdle than they expected leading into the bye week before that Clemson game — for the first time in recent memory Maryland is actually a decent team. They have cracked the bottom of the polls, their offense is explosive, and they are desperate for a defining win to prove that their stunning 37-0 win over West Virginia last time out was no fluke. The Seminoles are still the best team, and not by an insignificant amount. However, they just have to be particularly careful here.

Maryland at Florida State Betting Storylines

The quarterback matchup here is fascinating — a real study in contrasts. Redshirt freshman Jameis Winston is only four games into his career at Florida State, but there is already little doubt that he will be a star. He has completed nearly 74 percent of his passes for more than 1,000 yards passing with 12 touchdowns and just two interceptions. He looks like a man that is much more experienced than he is, and he’s only going to get better. His worst game came against lowly Bethune-Cookman, and he still threw for two touchdowns without a pick. That was the weakest team he has faced, and he perhaps took it too lightly — though the team still won 54-6 so he was far from an issue.

On the other side you have C.J. Brown, a redshirt senior who is finally starting after missing last year with an ACL injury. Expectations were relatively high heading into the season, and he has lived up to them. He has completed two-thirds of his passes with seven touchdowns and a single pick. He’s just as dangerous on his feet, and he has scored six times on the ground while eclipsing 105 yards rushing in two different games. He has been a major spark plug for this team — the biggest reason for their success — and his chemistry with sophomore receiver Stefon Diggs is incredible. Brown has a slight edge in experience over Winston, but not nearly as much as his age would suggest. Both guys are more than capable of making things happen, though, so there is a high chance we will see fireworks in this one.

You can be sure that Maryland will spend a lot of time watching the game tape from Florida State’s last game — at Boston College. The Seminoles won, but Boston College managed to score 34 points, and the Eagles have far from the most dangerous offense in the country. Boston College gained 200 yards on the ground and threw for four touchdowns and a solid average of seven yards per passing attempt. It was by far the best effort that a team has put up against the Seminoles this year, and it could have exposed some vulnerabilities that Maryland — a much better offense than the Eagles — could be in position to exploit. With Brown so strong on his feet, the matchup could be a good one for him.

Maryland at Florida State College Football Odds and Betting Trends

The line opened with Florida State favored by 16.5 points. That has since fallen by a full point, with a small majority of action on the Terps. The line has not crossed a key number, though, so it is not as significant as it could be. The total sits at 56.5 and has shown a very slight downward tendency.

Maryland hasn’t beaten Florida State since 2006 — a six-game losing streak. They are 2-2 ATS in the last four games, though, including a cover last year as massive 31.5-point underdogs. The Terrapins are 5-0 ATS in their last five on grass, so the setting could suit them here. Florida State has gone “over” the total in their last four games.

College Football Predictions: Maryland at Florida State Betting Picks

The Seminoles are the better team, but the Maryland offense is excellent. I also don’t trust the Seminoles mentally — the Jimbo Fisher era has not been marked by coming through when things are toughest. As impressive as Jameis Winston has been so far, this is his biggest test by far, and I’d feel comfortable with an experienced senior carrying my hopes. Florida State will likely win, but this is a lot of points, and I am willing to gamble that Maryland can keep it within two touchdowns.

Wow! Doc’s Sports college football picks are free! New clients can get $60 in expert football picks from any handicapper on Doc’s Sports Advisory Board. There is no obligation for this offer, and no salesman, ever! Click here to get your picks – it takes less than 2 minutes to sign up!

Read more articles by Trevor Whenham