2018 CFL Grey Cup Expert Picks with Odds and Betting Predictions

The Grey Cup, Canada's national football championship, takes place on Sunday in Edmonton, with the Calgary Stampeders set to meet the Ottawa Redblacks for all the glory. Calgary is favored by four points at Bovada , but from where I sit - about a mile from Calgary's home stadium - this game has a very weird feel. Calgary has been by far the best organization in the league for the last decade. This is their third straight appearance in the Grey Cup and third straight time they have been solidly favored. But each of the last two years they have found bizarre and wildly frustrating ways to lose the big game against outmatched opponents - Ottawa two years ago, and Toronto last year. It would be as if the Golden State Warriors had lost in the finals the last two years.

So, this year the team again made what felt like an inevitable run to this game, but there is very little excitement about the game. It's like people are braced for disappointment - as if they know that the Stamps are going to lose somehow, and they don't want to get invested in the result. And the Flames are playing well right now, which never helps out the Stampeders. Hockey owns this town. It's the oddest feeling I have ever experienced around a team heading into a title game.

It has been a bit of an odd season for Calgary, which hasn't helped the fans' nerves. They started the season 7-0 and looked like they were going to put together a historically strong season on both sides of the ball. But then injuries really caught up to them - especially at receiver, where they lost four starter-caliber guys for the year, and another for much of the season. They went 2-2 over the next month and seemed much more mortal. They won three straight to seem like they were right back on track. But then they sunk into a tailspin, losing three in a row before winning their final game. It was an ugly way to limp into the postseason with a 13-5 record. The West Division wasn't strong this year, though, so that was still good enough to win the division and host the divisional final, where they beat an outmatched Winnipeg team in a win that was far from dominant. And here we are.

Ottawa also won their division to earn a first-round playoff bye, but their 11-7 record was less impressive. And their season was less of a rollercoaster ride than Calgary's was. They opened 2-2, only had two two-game losing streaks, and ended both before they caused any real issues. It was perhaps a more workmanlike season than Calgary's and certainly came in a softer conference. But their win in the East Final against Hamilton was far more dominant and impressive than Calgary's, and Hamilton, the team they beat, was more impressive than Winnipeg, Calgary's foe, so Ottawa probably comes in riding a bigger wave.

In a league that only features nine teams, head-to-head action is usually pretty informative. But in this case it's really not. The teams met in Weeks 3 and 5 of the long season. Calgary won fairly comfortably at home and then dominated the rematch. But that was so long ago that the Calgary team we saw then bears little similarity to the one here, and Ottawa has changed as well.

The CFL is a quarterback-driven league, and we have two of the best in action here. Calgary's Bo Levi Mitchell won the Grey Cup in 2014, was the league's most outstanding player in 2016, and is favored to win the award again this week. He's a surgeon and gets tremendous credit for putting together the year he has - 35 TDs and more than 5,000 passing yards - with the revolving door he has had to deal with at receiver. But his offense has become more tentative down the stretch as the team has struggled, and he will need to have his best day here. On the other side is Trevor Harris, a very good passer who is coming off a performance in which he set a CFL playoff record with six touchdown passes. He is not as productive or as careful as Mitchell, though, with just 22 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. And Calgary, which has a solid defensive line and outstanding linebackers, has owned a lot of real estate in his head over the years. The two games that Harris played against Calgary this year were two of his worst of the season. He, too, needs to step up here to give his team a big chance.

So, let's break it down. Calgary has the better quarterback when it comes down to it. But Ottawa has a deeper and more effective running game. Ottawa has a deeper receiving corps right now, but Calgary's Eric Rogers is the best receiver in the league by a pretty wide margin when he is healthy - which he finally is after a rocky season. He had three TD catches in the West Final, and in each case he created the scores out of thin air. Ottawa's offensive line was very good last time out, but Calgary's has been better all year. Add it all up and Calgary has the advantage offensively, but not a massive one. Defensively, the gap is a little wider. The defensive line tilts significantly to Calgary. Led by Micah Johnson, they are a massive threat on every snap, while Ottawa has really struggled to get to the quarterback. And while Ottawa's linebackers are decent, Calgary's Alex Singleton is perhaps the best player in this game. And again, a decent enough Ottawa secondary is overwhelmed by a Calgary secondary that is tops in the league. Calgary has a clear edge on defense.

So, what does it all mean? Calgary has more talent, has matched up well when the teams have met, has the better quarterback, and the better defense. Calgary doesn't have the momentum, but they have a pretty solid coaching edge and will be ready. And Calgary is just 180 miles away from Edmonton, so the travel is much easier for them. At this price we have to take the favorites. But as a Calgarian I am braced for the Stamps to find a way to lose this one.

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