Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins Prediction, 3/28/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins

Date: Friday, March 28, 2025

Location: loanDepot park in Miami, FL

TV: FanDuel Sports Network Florida

Odds/Point Spread: Pittsburgh (-210) Miami (+172)

The Miami Marlins (62-100 last season) will try to defeat the Pittsburgh Pirates (76-86 last year) at loanDepot park on Friday. The odds on this game have the Pirates at -210 and the Marlins are sitting at +172. The betting total comes in at 8. The expected starting pitchers are Mitch Keller and Connor Gillispie.

As a team, the Pittsburgh Pirates notched 4.1 runs per outing, which put them at 24th in baseball. They had a total of 665 runs while holding a team on-base percentage of .301. The Pirates hit 236 doubles as a team and hit 160 balls out of the park. They accounted for 643 runs batted in and 1,283 base knocks in the previous season, while their average at the plate was at .234. Pittsburgh had a slugging percentage of .371 and were called out on strikes 1,506 times, while being walked on 485 occasions.

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The Pirates had an earned run average of 4.15 in the previous season (20th in the league), and the staff rung up 1,356 batters. Pirates pitchers yielded 166 home runs in addition to 739 runs in total (21st in the league). They walked 515 opposing batters and their FIP was 4.03 as a team in the previous season. Pittsburgh conceded 1,369 hits (8.6 per 9 innings) and 664 earned runs. They had a K/BB ratio of 2.63 and their pitching staff had a collective WHIP of 1.31.

The Pirates bullpen had a save percentage of 59.7% and came into the game in 160 save situations. The relievers inherited 206 base runners for the prior year and 34.0% of those players ended up crossing the plate. Pirates bullpen pitchers went to the mound with players on base 133 times and also had 174 games in high leverage situations. The Pirates had sent 513 relievers to the hill in the prior season. The relievers notched 87 holds during the previous year (13th in baseball). They had 43 saves for the prior year and did not convert 29 out of their 72 chances to save the game.

The Pittsburgh Pirates finished with 4,316 putouts in the previous season, in addition to 1,370 assists and 91 errors. Their fielding percentage was at .984 which was 20th in MLB, and had 139 double plays. The Pirates converted 68.7% of balls hit into play into outs out of their 12,948 innings on the field, which had them sitting 24th in baseball.

Keller has taken the mound for 701 innings and has accounted for 687 strikeouts so far in his career. Keller (36-50 mark in his career) is the owner of a FIP of 4.53 while facing 3,069 batters during his time in the major leagues. His ERA is 4.59 (358 ER's allowed) and he has a WHIP of 1.413. He has allowed 743 hits (9.5 hits per nine innings) with 248 walks.

The Miami Marlins earned a team OBP of .300 in addition to a batting average of .244 over the course of last season. They struck out on 1,410 occasions (13th in MLB) and had a total of 1,347 hits. Miami hit 150 home runs over the course of the prior season to go along with 611 RBIs. The Marlins had a team SLG% of .378 and they averaged 3.93 runs per game (27th in MLB). They put up 243 doubles, while getting a free base 403 times and putting up 637 runs.

The Miami pitching staff given up 841 runs over the course of last year while having an ERA of 4.73 (755 earned runs relinquished). They allowed 195 homers and they yielded 5.27 runs per 9 innings (29th in MLB). The Marlins finished with a team WHIP of 1.383 in addition to having a FIP of 4.44 as a pitching staff during the previous year. Their strikeout to walk ratio was 8.20 (1,317 strikeouts vs 556 bases on balls). They were ranked 28th in baseball as a staff in total hits relinquished with 1,431.

Miami called on bullpen pitchers to step onto the mound in 60 save chances and they walked away with 33 saves. They were ranked 29th in MLB holding a save rate of 55.0%, and they sent 556 relievers onto the diamond last year. Their relief pitchers took the field 186 times in high leverage situations and on 179 occasions with runners on base. Miami bullpen pitchers held an inherited score rate of 37.3% out of their 252 inherited runners. With 144 save situations, the Marlins earned 82 holds and also 27 blown saves.

In their 12,936 innings played, the Marlins accumulated a defensive efficiency of 68.1% (28th in baseball). The Miami Marlins turned 123 double plays and earned a fielding percentage of .980 (30th in pro baseball). The Marlins accrued 1,432 assists, 117 errors and earned 4,312 putouts for the prior year.

During his career, Gillispie has given up 4 hits while he has tallied 8 K's in 8 frames. He has surrendered 2 ER's while holding a WHIP of 1.125 and having a FIP of 2.2. He has a strikeout to walk ratio of 1.60 and he has faced 32 hitters so far in his pro baseball career. Gillispie (0-0 mark in his career) has earned a 2.25 earned run average while giving up 4.5 hits per 9 innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Miami (+172)

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